Why Cillian Murphy, Adam Driver and an MCU star are the smartest picks for the next Bond villain

If you’re keeping tabs on Bond, you’ll know the question everyone’s quietly obsessed with right now isn’t just who gets to slip into 007’s tuxedo next, but who’ll be plotting dastardly world domination on the other side of the table. The traditional ‘Bond villain’ seat is open, and the rumour mill is running overtime.

State of Play: Bond 26 (or whatever they’re calling it)

Let’s start with what we actually know. Which, to be fair, isn’t much. The upcoming Bond film is still shrouded in the sort of secrecy you’d expect from MI6 headquarters. There’s no cast yet, no Bond confirmed, and no official word on what the rebooted era will feel like. What we do have:

• Denis Villeneuve (yes, the Dune chap) is down to direct
• The script’s coming from Steven Knight, who you’ll know for Peaky Blinders
• Amazon MGM Studios are running the show
• Production’s rumoured to kick off in 2027
• Release window: sometime in 2028, if reports aren’t being optimistic

If that feels like a long way off, that’s because it absolutely is. But that hasn’t stopped punters (and, let’s be honest, half the actors’ agents in Britain and Hollywood) speculating about who’ll take the coveted villain slot.

The Usual Suspects: Who’s Actually in the Mix?

In typical Bond fashion, the villain gig lately has skewed toward strong, recognisable faces—they’ve had Rami Malek, Javier Bardem, Christoph Waltz, Mads Mikkelsen, all the dependable heavyweights. The new iteration isn’t likely to break that trend.

Prediction markets like Kalshi (which are, to be blunt, about as scientific as asking your mates down the pub but often surprisingly on the money), have named their frontrunners:

• Adam Driver
• Cillian Murphy
• Barry Keoghan
• Peter Dinklage
• Idris Elba
• Rosamund Pike

Out of that crowd, it’s the top three who make things interesting.

Who Makes Sense (and Why Driver Has the Edge)

Let’s break down the main contenders. Cillian Murphy has form as the quietly lethal sort—most’ll know him for his ‘Tommy Shelby’ era in Peaky Blinders, but if you go further back, the man’s played enough brooding outsiders to fill out a Blofeld family reunion. Plus, he’s already worked with Steven Knight, which doesn’t hurt his odds.

Adam Driver, though, is the one odds-makers currently tip to take it. That probably comes down to presence. At 6’3", he’s a physically imposing bloke—no small thing when you’re up against whoever the next Bond is. He’s already done ‘complex villain’ in Star Wars playing Kylo Ren, and if you’ve seen any of his indie fare, you’ll know he can pretty much shift gears however a script requires. Bond villains range from unhinged to quietly megalomaniacal, and Driver honestly could play either with his eyes shut.

Then we’ve got Barry Keoghan. He’s probably the wildcard. Keoghan’s done his share of menacing weirdos (The Killing of a Sacred Deer, Crime 101), and he’s also in the wider Peaky Blinders orbit. On paper it works, but his schedule is reportedly mad at the moment, which could throw a spanner in things if the studio’s after a big commitment.

What Happens Next?

If you take the current prediction market at face value (you shouldn’t, but still), Adam Driver’s top of the pile by a fair distance, with Murphy and Keoghan trailing. Whether that’s worth much is up for debate—the studio might have their own weirdly specific wishlist, and until they make the call, it’s all guesswork.

There was a point in the midst of all this speculation that probably sums up the whole circus—one source put it:

So, as it stands: Bond 26 is miles off, the villain’s still being fought over behind closed doors, and the only thing that’s certain is we’re likely looking at a showdown between actors who’ve all done credibly disturbing things on screen before.