Toy Story 5 set to dominate Supergirl at the box office

Well, it looked for a hot minute like we were in for a proper box office scrap this summer — but, honestly, one of the supposed big battles is shaping up to be a bit of a damp squib. Earlier in the year, plenty of people were betting that DC's Supergirl would go toe-to-toe with Toy Story 5 in its second weekend, but unless something dramatic happens, that's just not on the cards.

Here’s what’s going on: Supergirl has been struggling with rough early buzz, patchy reviews (ours included — no sugar-coating it), and, frankly, what feels like a heavy dose of superhero fatigue from the general public. There's already chatter that the opening weekend could be as low as $30 million, but if you look at the die-hard DC fan turnout, there’s probably just enough heat to nudge it up to $40 million, maybe $45 million if it’s lucky. I went to one of the preview screenings the other night — packed out with cosplayers doing their absolute best — so there is still a core of solid enthusiasm there.

The obstacles facing Supergirl boil down to this: it’s clearly targeting the loyal DC brigade, but for anyone outside that, there's a sense they’ve seen it all before. Superhero films aren’t dead in the water, but they’re very much in a quiet patch. Marvel's recent output has barely made a splash (outside of Deadpool vs. Wolverine), and even Warner’s own Superman — which did alright, to be fair — actually sold fewer tickets than Zack Snyder's Man of Steel, a film considered underwhelming back in 2013. If Superman can't light a fire under moviegoers these days, what chance does Supergirl have?

Toy Story, on the other hand, is still on a roll. Toy Story 5 is expected to cruise to an $80 million weekend, fuelled by a hefty debut and a sterling A CinemaScore. It's doing so well, in fact, that it's likely to eat into the box office for Minions & Monsters and even Disney's own Moana sequel.

Where does Jackass fit into all this?

The latest (and supposedly final) chapter in the franchise, Jackass: Best and Last, drops as a bit of counterprogramming. Don’t expect it to match the glory days — it’s tracking for a $15 million start, a far cry from the towering $50 million opening of Jackass 3D back in 2010. The previous one, Jackass Forever, managed just $23.15 million. Still, these films are dirt cheap to make, so even a modest turnout is enough for Paramount to rake in a tidy profit.

Meanwhile, the little thriller that could, Obsession, should glide into fourth place, pulling about $10 million as it heads towards a potential $280–300 million run in the US alone — not bad for a movie made on a shoestring $750,000 budget. A24's Backrooms is set to round out the top five, likely banking around $5 million.

This week’s box office predictions, here they are:

• Toy Story 5: $80 million
• Supergirl: $45 million
• Jackass: Best and Last: $15 million
• Obsession: $10 million
• Backrooms: $5 million

One thing’s clear: for anyone still holding out hope for a head-to-head between buzzcut Kryptonians and talking toys, it’s not quite panning out as the summer brawl the studios might have hoped for.