Toy Story 5 on track to shatter the franchise's opening weekend record

Quick catch-up if you’re tracking the cinematic horse race this weekend: Pixar is about to roll out Toy Story 5, and it appears the entire industry is bracing for a monster opening. If you thought Hoppers doing $166 million domestically was a decent bounce-back for the studio, this is a whole different league.

Let’s get into just how seismic this weekend could be, especially if you care about records, studio anxiety since the pandemic, or box office numbers generally making your jaw drop.

Toy Story’s Insane Climb (and Why It’s Not Slowing Down)

Every single Toy Story film has made more cash than the last. Here’s a quick reminder of the opening weekend haul for each one, because honestly, the numbers are pretty staggering:

• 1995: Toy Story - $29.1 million to start (which, for its day, was huge... it’s no exaggeration to call it groundbreaking)
• 1999: Toy Story 2 - $57 million
• 2010: Toy Story 3 - $110 million
• 2019: Toy Story 4 - $120 million

Now, Toy Story 5 is being tipped to trounce Inside Out 2’s $154 million opening with somewhere around $160 million, and some are even hinting at $175 million. I’ll be honest, that higher figure seems a bit punchy to me. Even if it doesn’t quite get there, $160 million would still make it Pixar’s second-biggest opening ever, just behind The Incredibles 2 (which bagged $182 million, to put things in perspective).

It helps that reviews are looking strong, and crucially, there’s basically zero competition for families right now. The last big animated release was The Super Mario Bros. Movie back in April, so anyone complaining about 'franchise fatigue' clearly hasn’t tried taking small children to the cinema lately. That kind of talk did in The Mandalorian and Grogu, but it’s not a factor here.

What About the Rest of the Films This Weekend?

On to Steven Spielberg’s latest, Disclosure Day. This one’s trickier to call. Opened well enough, but the audience seems split. Some are throwing words like 'masterpiece' around, whilst others are already slotting it into the ‘Is this his worst?’ box. If it’s going to make its money back, it really needs to hang in there over the next few weeks. I reckon we’ll see about $20 million this weekend, which isn’t setting the world alight. Smells like everyone who was interested already turned up on day one.

Then there’s Obsession, which is shaping up to be Focus’s little juggernaut — on track for another $15 million this weekend, bringing it well past $200 million overall. At this rate, if audiences keep turning up, $300 million domestic isn’t out of the question. All from a project that cost $750,000 to make. Not a bad return, that.

As for the rest, Scary Movie should be in fourth with about $7 million, and A24’s The Death of Robin Hood rounds out the top five with roughly $5 million. To be honest, the Robin Hood film looks like a classic bit of risky summer counter-programming. Expect it to play mainly to the art house crowd rather than pulling in a general audience.

To sum up, here’s what the weekend is shaping up to look like:

• Toy Story 5: $160 million
• Disclosure Day: $20 million
• Obsession: $15 million
• Scary Movie: $7 million
• The Death of Robin Hood: $5 million

'What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments.'