Toy Story 5 is poised to crush records with a sky-high box office forecast

Infinity might be wishful thinking, but if the latest predictions are anything to go by, Toy Story 5 is about to launch itself into box office orbit. The fifth outing for Woody, Buzz, and the rest of the gang has just upped its already eye-watering numbers for opening weekend – and honestly, it’s not what you’d expect from Pixar after the last few rocky years. Clearly, this franchise still has legs (even if some of the characters literally don’t).

The (Extremely) High-Stakes Forecast

Let’s get the numbers out of the way, because they’re frankly a bit mad:

• Predicted domestic opening weekend (US): $165 million to $185 million
• Previous estimate was $150 million to $175 million, so someone’s feeling optimistic this week
• This would handily beat Toy Story 4’s opening ($120 million), and even knock Inside Out 2 ($154 million) out of the top spot among recent blockbusters
• To really put it in perspective, if it hits that $185 million mark, it’ll be the biggest animated opening weekend ever in the States, just nudging out Incredibles 2 ($182.6 million)
• For comparison’s sake, Deadpool & Wolverine recently opened to $211 million – the current high-water mark. Toy Story 5’s forecast isn’t far behind

These predictions come from BoxOffice Pro, who updated their long-range numbers on 12 June, clearly catching a whiff of something in the air (besides that ‘new Toy Story film’ smell). Even the more cautious folks at Deadline say $150 million+ is on the cards, but they point out that Toy Story 4’s tracking was also a bit too rosy – so it’s not a done deal.

Why the Hype? Big-Ticket Moves (And Taylor Swift)

It’s not as if there’s no competition this summer – Disclosure Day from Steven Spielberg drops around the same time, plus Masters of the Universe and various other contenders. Still, Pixar’s plastic heroes are expected to cut through the noise, at least until Supergirl and Minions & Monsters show up later in June and July.

Then there’s the Taylor Swift factor. She dropped an original single, 'I Knew It, I Knew You', less than a fortnight before release. By now, the music video’s been watched over 4.7 million times on YouTube, and her Instagram post about the track has racked up 3.9 million likes. Not exactly small fry. According to BoxOfficeTheory, this generation-spanning hype is only building, helped along by the film’s release window coinciding with both Juneteenth and Father’s Day. If you’re still questioning the marketing machine, you’re braver than me.

Returning Faces (and Nearly Not-Returning One)

In one of those odd bits of trivia, Andrew Stanton – who’s both writing and directing this time – nearly left Woody out entirely in the original script. Yes, Tom Hanks’ character, the literal face (and hat) of the series, was missing from the first go. Stanton reckoned reuniting Woody with the gang would be a step too far, given that emotional farewell in the last film. End of the day, though, it just didn’t work. Woody’s back. Cowboy hat on. Crisis averted.

Meanwhile, Tom Hanks himself has thrown in an opinion about voice acting and the Oscars, insisting there’s no need for a separate awards category just for voice talent – which, coming from the most famous cowboy in animation, is either humility or a serious undersell of his work. Take your pick.

The Numbers Game (And the Competition)

While Toy Story 5 will easily have the stage to itself initially, there are a few bumps down the road – namely those other tentpole releases later in the summer. If it manages to carry this momentum through, though, that $1.07 billion worldwide number set by Toy Story 4 might not be safe. For now, all eyes are on that opening weekend: Pixar probably don’t mind the wait.