The box office number Toy Story 5 must hit to be a success

Alright, so the summer blockbuster race for 2026 is shaping up, and it’s looking like Toy Story 5 might just bulldoze the competition. We’re only getting this film because, let’s be honest, Pixar loves a sequel almost as much as we love watching Woody fretting over his existential purpose. Seven years on from Toy Story 4, and not everyone was begging for another outing, but here we are – and all signs suggest the studio's gamble is going to pay off in a big way.

Big Numbers, Big Stakes

Let’s talk box office: every projection out there is bullish about Toy Story 5. Variety reckons it’ll do between $135 and $140 million in its opening weekend. Meanwhile, some more optimistic analysts are putting it as high as $175 million. Even the low estimates would break the series' own weekend record (the last film managed $120.9 million), and even outpace this summer’s other big bet, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, which did $131.4 million across its official opening weekend.

That’s just the start. Globally, Toy Story 5 could be staring down a monstrous $275 million debut, which beats the very healthy $249.5 million Toy Story 4 posted back in 2019. Only Mario looks set to open bigger worldwide this year, with a frankly ridiculous $372.5 million – but that film had a bit of a head start midweek.

It’s not just about a fast start for Woody and Buzz: the weekend two slot also looks pretty much locked. Toy Story 5 is positioned to outlast rivals like the new Minions flick, Mayhem, and even Disney’s live-action Moana. Meanwhile, presumed heavy hitters like The Odyssey and Spider-Man: Brand New Day may have bragging rights in pre-sales, but family films sell a shed-load of day-of tickets – always have, likely always will.

Comparisons and Cautions

The last Pixar megahit, Inside Out 2, kicked off with a startling $154 million and finished up at $1.698 billion globally – turns out everyone loves feelings with feelings. That’s now Pixar's biggest haul ever. But look, don’t get carried away: even though Toy Story is one of the most bankable names in cinema, the franchise hasn’t shown the “bigger every time” growth that some other lines have. Toy Story 4 pretty much matched Toy Story 3’s numbers. There is a ceiling – just not one most studios would complain about.

Pixar’s Priciest Gamble

Let's get to the price tag. Toy Story 5 apparently cost $250 million to make, which is the fattest budget in Pixar history. For perspective: Toy Story 4 and Lightyear each cost a still-hefty $200 million. $200 million's been the Pixar average recently, so Toy Story 5 is an outlier – which means the bean counters are definitely watching the tills.

There’s a rule of thumb in Hollywood: your film needs to take in at least double its budget to clear the “hit” bar. That puts the magic number at $500 million. Sounds achievable, until you remember that Toy Story 3 and Toy Story 4 did $415m and $434m at the US box office respectively. Internationally though, both managed just over $1 billion, so that’s clearly the benchmark here.

What’s changed? The budget’s gone up. So expectations are not just for 'another $1 billion', but ideally a bit more – and perhaps something approaching Incredibles 2's $1.243 billion or Inside Out 2's world-conquering $1.698 billion. Otherwise, Disney may get a bit twitchy behind closed doors.

It’s Not (Just) About Tickets

One thing working in Toy Story 5’s favour, though, is the tsunami of merchandising money. According to Axios, the franchise has raked in a jaw-dropping $11 billion from movies and merchandise since 1995. So even if ticket sales are “just” massive – and not record-breaking – all those plastic Woodys and Buzzes will probably send the accountants home happy.

The Cast and That Taylor Swift Song

• All your usual suspects are back: Tom Hanks as Woody, Tim Allen as Buzz Lightyear, Joan Cusack as Jessie, plus the rest of the toy chest regulars. Disney’s very much sticking to the formula here.
• If you’ve not heard, one of the film’s big marketing stunts is a new Taylor Swift tie-in song. Wherever you stand on her ubiquity, it’s a savvy move. Expect it everywhere: trailers, promos, half the family singing it on the school run.

If there’s a potential fly in the ointment – besides the lamentable Lightyear detour and regular rumblings that ‘the series should have ended at 3’ – it’s only that franchises can’t actually grow forever. Still, unless public opinion whiplashes or there's some catastrophic backlash, Toy Story 5 will likely be the film to beat this year, both at the box office and in the Disney Store tills.