Supergirl heads for a hard landing as early box office outlook dims
Supergirl could be in for a bumpy landing, with early box office tracking pointing to an underwhelming opening that might clip the Girl of Steel’s wings.
Here we go again with DC trying to relaunch everything. Supergirl is next up after James Gunn's brand new Superman kicks off the rebooted DC cinematic experiment in 2025. But before you get too excited (or not, given the DC track record), there are already warning signs flashing about Supergirl's box office chances—and these aren't just wild internet predictions, they're coming from the people who actually crunch the numbers.
The Numbers Aren't Pretty
Supergirl, starring Milly Alcock (yep, the one from House of the Dragon), is meant to keep the DCU alive and kicking. Directed by Craig Gillespie, this one hits the States on 26 June 2026, with a fancier Brooklyn premiere a few days ahead on 22 June. But the big story here isn't the glitzy red carpet—it’s the domestic box office projection, which is, frankly, a bit of a facepalm.
- Opening weekend (US): Early forecasts say $51 million, with most analysts putting it somewhere between $47 and $58 million.
- Full run (US + Canada): They reckon $125 million total, possibly as low as $107 million or as high as $161 million if every kid drags a mate along.
To be clear, these fresh numbers are lower than what they initially expected. BoxOfficeTheory says they've basically knocked 10% off their original forecast after looking at how little buzz the film’s actually generating. BoxOffice Pro is also feeling glum, with their own opening estimate between $45 million and $55 million—hardly a rocket-powered start for the latest Kryptonian landing.
How Does That Stack Up?
When you look at what other DC blockbusters have pulled on opening weekends, Supergirl is, well, not in the same league. Gunn's Superman reboot supposedly has a $125 million opener lined up. Black Adam (remember that Dwayne Johnson antihero project? Don't worry, neither does anyone else) managed $67 million out the gate. The Flash (2023) scraped out $55 million, which is honestly more the territory Supergirl’s playing in—so much for new DC momentum.
The only sort-of positive here: the bar is set lower for what Supergirl needs to clear before it starts turning a profit. For ages, no one knew what this film actually cost to make, but Deadline has managed to dig up an actual figure: $175 million net production cost. The break-even point? $315 million global. That’s weirdly lenient, since normal blockbuster maths expects 2.5 times the budget—so we should be talking at least $437 million before anyone at Warner Bros. is popping champagne. Maybe the accountants know something we don’t.
June Release: The Worst Timing?
The way things stand, there's a wall of family-friendly competition in cinemas that month. Just look:
- Toy Story 5 (Pixar, 19 June): Forecast to open at $150–184 million. All but unstoppable.
- Minions & Monsters (1 July): A cash magnet for the Despicable Me crowd, predicting a $53–62 million start.
- Moana (Live Action) (Disney, 10 July): Will siphon off the same multi-gen female audiences Supergirl is hoping for, with more nostalgia power to boot.
Essentially, every week in June and early July, there’s something bigger and probably lighter. Not an ideal runway for a superhero film trying to launch a franchise, particularly when the superhero in question isn’t anywhere near DC's upper tier with fans.
A Character Problem Too?
Let's not kid ourselves: Supergirl is nowhere near the top of the DC popularity charts. In a fan poll ('Best DC Comics Heroes of All Time' via Ranker), Supergirl placed 25th—just edging out Blue Beetle and one version of Robin. Not exactly Batman, Wonder Woman or The Flash territory, is it? If you’re James Gunn and you need to follow Superman, you'd probably have been safer with one of the big guns—or literally anyone with a bat symbol. (To be fair, some of those other heavy hitters are slated for their own reboots or shiny streaming series, but still.)
At Least the Critics Might Like It
To end on something vaguely optimistic, word is Supergirl is still tipped for a strong Rotten Tomatoes score—even amid whatever odd controversies have cropped up already. But whether that's enough to rescue it at the box office is another matter entirely.