Supergirl can't soar to No. 1 in opening weekend

Right, time to talk about Supergirl – the latest DC film that was supposed to soar but has crash-landed at the box office. After last year’s Superman (which, let’s be honest, actually did a half-decent job rebooting the DC Universe for the twentieth time), the path should have been clear for Superman’s cousin to have her big moment. But that’s not what’s happened.

Box Office Reality Check

Supergirl has been out for a full weekend, and the numbers are, frankly, disappointing. Domestically, it’s picked up $38 million, which is nearly £10 million shy of even the lowest studio projections – they wanted at least $50 million. Globally, it’s sitting at $68 million. And the price tag for getting this film made: $170 million. According to an insider at Variety, the break-even point isn’t even close – apparently, the film needs to haul in at least $300 million to turn a profit. That seems about as likely as a heatwave in January, because box office returns usually drop off like a stone after opening weekend.

Just to add insult to injury, Supergirl didn’t even win the box office this weekend. That went to Toy Story 5 – yes, that’s the fifth one – which is still pulling in big crowds a week after release. It bagged another $70 million domestically this weekend, pushing its global total to an eye-watering $585 million. So while Woody and Buzz continue their victory lap three decades on, the DCU is wobbling just two years into its latest incarnation.

So, What Went Wrong?

Simple answer: a combination of the wrong kind of attention and fading superhero hype. Toy Story 5 is getting rave reviews from critics, while Supergirl has split them straight down the middle. In Supergirl, Milly Alcock plays Kara Zor-El, who flies off on a mission to help an alien girl named Ruthye (played by Eve Ridley) chase down a personal vendetta. Apparently that storyline hasn’t connected with people the way laser-eyed dolls and talking space rangers have.

If you dig into the turnout numbers, 59% of the opening crowd was male – which says the film didn’t reach much further than your usual tights-and-capes crowd. These days, superhero films that do proper business are the ones with the instantly recognisable names – think Batman and Superman, not the supporting cast. So, with DC Studios planning the supernatural-horror Clayface film for October (budgeted at just $40 million, so even if it tanks, it’s not a disaster), they’ll be hoping the lower stakes pay off until the Superman sequel drops in 2027.

Superhero Fatigue: Real Thing or Excuse?

• In the 2010s, even your C-list superhero films were clocking up billion-dollar box office numbers. No one really questioned whether there were too many comic book films, because every year, someone would release another and it’d make ridiculous money.
• Now? Things have changed. While Deadpool & Wolverine and Spider-Man: No Way Home have kept up the blockbuster side, there’s been plenty of superhero flops: Thunderbolts, Black Adam, The Flash, Captain America: Brave New World, The Marvels, Blue Beetle – not nice company to keep.

The legitimate successes are rarer, which is bad news if you’re Warner Bros. and your whole game plan depends on another ten years of interconnected superhero nonsense.