Michael Set to Moonwalk Past $80 Million in Domestic Debut

Well, I just got back from an early screening of Michael (the Michael Jackson biopic) here in Montreal — and it was kind of a madhouse. People were literally sitting on the floor in the aisles because every seat was already packed. I’ve never seen that at a press screening before, so clearly, the hype for Antoine Fuqua’s take on the King of Pop is real. Honestly, if you’ve read any of those projections that have Michael opening at $40 million or so, I’m here to tell you: that number feels way too safe. After actually witnessing the craziness on the ground, I would not be surprised if this thing blows past $80 million in its first weekend. That would make it a giant kick-off for Lionsgate’s latest project.

Yep, They Changed the Ending (And Maybe the Whole Franchise)

Now, something you probably haven’t heard in all the chatter: Michael had a pretty bumpy road to the big screen, especially when it comes to the final act. For legal reasons, the filmmakers actually had to cut out the entire third act — which would have covered more of Jackson’s later, ultra-controversial years. So what we’re getting in theaters sticks with his early life up until the big moment celebrating the Victory Tour. (If you’re a fan who was hoping for juicy Bad album drama — sorry, it’s not in here. The movie literally stops before they get into all that.)

What does that mean for the future? It pretty much begs for a sequel. Even with critics being somewhere between lukewarm and grumpy (I landed on 'mixed', for the record), I can’t see hardcore Jackson fans missing opening weekend. This first one will make enough noise to keep the series going if Lionsgate wants it.

'People were so desperate to see Michael early that they gave up finding seats and just plopped down in the aisles.'

What Else Is In The Mix?

A quick rundown of who’s trying to make box office waves against Michael:

• The Super Mario Galaxy Movie should easily land in second; it’s tracking toward another $20 million or so, but I think $18 million is a little more realistic.
• Project Hail Mary is basically the Energizer Bunny of movie releases — just keeps going. Should settle into third with around $13 million.
• Lee Cronin’s The Mummy will drop a little this week, likely bringing in $6.5 million for fourth place.
• Over Your Dead Body (the Jason Segel and Samara Weaving dark comedy) could squeak into the top five with $4.5 million.

Then there’s Desert Warrior, which is one of those projects everyone’s heard rumors about for years, mostly because they poured over $150 million into it and shot it in Saudi Arabia. Anthony Mackie stars and Rupert Wyatt (who gave us Rise of the Planet of the Apes) is directing — but honestly, there’s zero buzz. Vertical’s releasing it, but don’t expect much. Sometimes throwing money at a giant historical epic just isn’t enough.

My Final Predictions

For the numbers nerds, here’s how it stacks up for the weekend:

• Michael: $80 million
• The Super Mario Galaxy Movie: $20 million
• Project Hail Mary: $13 million
• Lee Cronin’s The Mummy: $6.5 million
• Over Your Dead Body: $4.5 million

So, what are you actually buying tickets for? Let me know below — I’m genuinely curious what’s pulling you out to theaters this weekend (aisle seat not guaranteed).