Live-action Moana’s Rotten Tomatoes forecast is sinking fast

Disney's bold plan to remake Moana in live-action form is looking a bit shaky, at least if you believe the early predictions floating around. It stars Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson as Maui – naturally, he’s got a ridiculous black wig to match – and Catherine Laga'aia taking over as Moana herself. If you get the sense that Disney is raiding its own back catalogue at a rather alarming rate, you’re not alone. This one lands in UK cinemas on 10 July 2026, with some lucky folks catching early previews on the 9th.

Behind the Scenes

The directing job’s gone to Thomas Kail (yes, the Hamilton bloke), who’s no stranger to musical spectacle. The whole thing runs at 115 minutes, only eight minutes longer than the original – so, if you’re wondering, there’s not much padding for a decade-old story getting a do-over.

Pundits Put Their Money Down on Rotten

Now, onto the numbers drama. Rotten Tomatoes ratings have become a sport in themselves, and according to Kalshi (one of those sites where people gamble on numbers), Moana's live-action redo is predicted to limp in with about 60% from critics. That’s the literal cut-off between their 'Fresh' and 'Rotten' badges. In other words, Disney’s big ocean adventure could end up in the critics’ no-man’s-land – neither a crowd-pleaser nor a car crash, just kind of wet and tepid.

• Chance of scoring above 45%: 87%
• Above 50%: 80%
• Above 55%: 63%
• Above 60%: 51%
• Above 65%: 40%
• Above 70%: 23%
• Above 75%: 12%
• Above 80%: 3%
• Above 85%: 3%
• Above 90%: Less than 1%

To put those odds in context: after The Little Mermaid live-action landed with a 67%, and Lilo & Stitch managed 72%, this does look a bit grim. Still better than Snow White (sitting at a tragic 39%, apparently) and Mufasa: The Lion King which limped in at 56%. It’s a rough crowd out there for the House of Mouse.

Bit of background on those predictions – when the Rotten Tomatoes bet opened on 17 June, Moana was hovering at a rosier 66%. Since then, it’s swung from as high as 66.9% to as low as 58.5%, bobbing up and down like a dinghy in a storm. As of late June, it’s settling right on that awkward boundary line.

When the Reviews Hit

Review embargoes are the name of the game here. Early buzz starts trickling in after the social media embargo drops on 6 July at 10:30pm Pacific, but if you want the proper critical verdict, the full embargo lifts on 8 July at 8am Pacific/11am Eastern. Until then, everything's speculation, but expect the takes to start flying very soon.

Trailer Reactions: Not Exactly Love At First Sight

Let’s just say, fans haven’t rolled out the red carpet for this one. The final trailer, which dropped 10 June, notched up 979,000 views, with the like/dislike ratio splitting the audience: 15,000 upvotes against a hefty 12,000 downvotes (if you’re using the Return YouTube Dislike Chrome extension, anyway). The first trailer in March took a bigger battering: about 61,000 likes but a whopping 188,000 dislikes. That’s not a great look.

Browsing the comments, you’ll see the biggest complaints are about the CGI overload (some reckon it might as well have been animated again, and honestly, what’s the point there?), the visuals being less lush than the cartoon, and the very existence of a remake so soon after the original. Also, let’s not understate the sheer shock some fans have expressed about The Rock in that swirling black wig.

What About the Box Office?

All that criticism hasn’t quite sunk Disney’s financial ship just yet. Forecasts put Moana’s US opening at around $85 million by domestic estimates – or $88 million, if you go by BoxOfficeTheory’s 19 June prediction. The full domestic total is tracking at $258 million, which is still solid, though it lags behind The Little Mermaid’s $95 million opening and $298 million finish. Plus, it’ll have to battle it out in cinemas the same week as Toy Story 5 and Supergirl. The competition is not exactly gentle.