Live-action Moana poised to ride the same box office wave as the original

Disney appears to be going all-in on nostalgia this summer with its new live-action version of 'Moana', and if the early numbers are anything to go by, the studio could be laughing all the way to the bank. Dwayne Johnson is back—not just lending his voice, but actually turning up on set as Maui, the tattooed demigod, and Disney is banking on his star power to get bums in seats.

Box Office: Early Bets Are In

'Moana' is looking at an $85 million opening weekend in the US alone. That figure comes from pre-release tracking data three weeks out—even before Disney really cranks up its marketing machine. The release date is locked for 10 July, which puts it in the middle of a rather claustrophobic summer family-movie schedule.

Let’s put that $85 million in perspective:

• It’s about level with last year’s live-action 'How to Train Your Dragon' remake, which clocked in at $84.6 million.
• It's miles ahead of 'Mufasa: The Lion King', which had a pretty feeble $35.4 million start at the same point.
• But it’s nowhere near the fireworks thrown by 'Moana 2'—the animated sequel managed to scoop up a staggering $225.4 million in its first five days, thanks largely to a Thanksgiving release slot and, well, the fact that kids adore these things.
• The original 2016 'Moana' also made the most of the holidays, grossing $82 million across its first five days.

Who’s Who (and What’s New)

Dwayne Johnson graduates from studio booth to proper costume, physically playing Maui this time round. Meanwhile, newcomer Catherine Laga’aia is picking up the Moana mantle from Auli'i Cravalho, who voiced the part originally. Direction is coming from Thomas Kail—yes, the bloke behind TV’s 'Fosse/Verdon'—so the project isn’t short of big names or creative brains.

Not Exactly Clear Sailing

It’s not just a case of Disney ships arriving unchallenged. The Independence Day corridor is absolutely heaving this year. Universal is throwing 'Minions & Monsters' into cinemas just nine days before 'Moana', and that’s expected to do at least $95 million in its first five days.

If that’s not enough, 'Toy Story 5' is still riding high, with projections pointing to a monster $140 million-plus debut. So, 'Moana' is going to have to fight for its share of the family audience, not least with parents who can only stomach so many animated musicals in a single month. (Honestly, can’t blame them.)

Still, industry types are saying this $85 million figure could be just a starting point. There’s plenty of time to get the PR engines running, so these predictions might change as Disney ratchets up its promo push. To quote one analyst on the latest tracking:

'The current number is basically a marker, not a ceiling. With Disney’s marketing, anything’s possible with a few weeks left.'