Bleak box office forecast puts Supergirl on the ropes

Supergirl might have heat vision and the ability to punt tanks across the Gobi Desert, but it turns out she could still be brought down by something as mundane as a dodgy box office forecast. Not kryptonite, just quite a few ticket buyers thinking twice. If you've not been following the numbers – and let‘s be honest, with superhero fatigue, who can blame you – it’s all looking a bit ropey for Supergirl’s big solo adventure next summer.

This One's Not Flying High

If you didn't know, this incarnation of Supergirl (played by Milly Alcock, making her DC main universe debut after a cameo in David Corenswet’s Superman) was meant to be a major tentpole in James Gunn and Peter Safran's new-look DC universe. The film's directed by Craig Gillespie – yes, the bloke behind I, Tonya and Cruella – and it’s locked in for a 26 June 2026 release across the UK and US. Sadly, the summer’s shaping up to be brutal – not just for spandex-wearers, but for DC’s accounting teams.

Box office tracking over the past couple of weeks has done that classic thing where optimism quietly leaves by the back door. Last week, forecasters were already bracing for a lower opening weekend. Now that projection’s dropped again.

The Numbers: Not Exactly Super

• Latest forecast (as of 19 June, via BoxOfficeTheory): Domestic opening haul predicted at $48 million – but the actual range could be as low as $39 million, or as high as $51 million.
• That’s a 6% dip compared to last week’s guess (then, they had it pegged between $47m and $58m).
• The first set of forecasts, months ago, reached as high as $65 million.
• Another outlet, BoxOffice Pro, is slightly more bullish – they see a range of $45 to $55 million.
• For what it’s worth, Matthew Belloni from Puck posted on X that industry tracking firm NRG is at the top end of these numbers: $51 million for the US opening weekend.

All in all – whichever tipster you trust – the trend is clearly heading south.

Why the Downturn?

This is where things get a bit inside the machine. Social media buzz is described as "positive-to-mixed" (which, let’s be honest, is critic code for 'not brilliant'). Early ticket pre-sales are heavily loaded toward Thursday preview nights, which seems to be the pattern for films with a hardcore fanbase but not much mainstream draw. They reckon Thursday’s takings might just pip 2023’s The Marvels ($6.6 million on previews) – but even the forecasters themselves admit that $48 million is, in their words, a "bullish" assumption for Supergirl’s debut. The real result could be more like $40 million.

Budget vs Box Office – Can She Break Even?

For the number crunchers: Supergirl has a $175 million production budget. Slightly cheaper than Corenswet’s Superman (that ran $200 million), but $175 million is still a significant chunk for any studio, even one betting big on a relaunch. Deadline’s math says recouping that investment means clearing at least $315 million worldwide – but the industry’s usual payout formula is closer to 2.5 times the budget, so the true break-even could be upwards of $435 million. If you’re opening at $48 million domestically, that’s a slog.

Comparisons are telling. The Marvels managed a $46 million opener in the States last year, and limped to $206.1 million globally. Mortal Kombat II this year? Started at $38.5 million US, finished its run at $129 million worldwide. Not exactly blockbuster territory.

Bigger Fights Ahead: Summer Competition

It gets worse when you look at what else is hitting multiplexes right around Supergirl’s launch window. Animations are crowding in for younger audiences and families, and they’re expected to clean up:

• Toy Story 5 (Pixar): already bragging a $160 million domestic opening, miles ahead of anything DC’s touting.
• Minions & Monsters (Illumination): arrives five days after Supergirl, but forecast for a much stronger $57 million domestic opening.
• Jackass: Best and Last: launches the same day as Supergirl. Not a main rival, though. Expected to grab around $15 million – about a third of what Supergirl might net.

Stick that lot together, plus other releases like Young Washington (June 3), Evil Dead Burn and live-action Moana (both June 10), and The Odyssey (June 17), and Supergirl’s chances for a long, break-out run on the charts look slimmer by the week.