Analysts Forecast Trouble at the Box Office for Disney’s Live-Action Moana

Look, Disney's next attempt at turning one of its animated hits into a live-action moneymaker isn't exactly sailing towards blockbuster paradise—at least, if you believe the early numbers. The 2026 Moana remake is lining up for a pretty tepid box office start, especially compared to the rest of Disney’s conveyor belt of live-action reboots.

The Basics: Who, When, What

First, the essentials. This new Moana is landing in US cinemas on 10 July 2026, slap-bang in the middle of a summer where children's films are tripping over each other at the box office. In this one, Catherine Laga'aia is playing Moana, and yes, Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson is back as Maui. They're sticking much closer to the original 2016 animated film this time—certainly more than that Lilo & Stitch remake bothered to do.

Box Office Predictions: Not So Magical

Here’s where things get interesting. If you were expecting another Lion King-style wad of cash, you might want to sit down. Latest forecast? Moana is set to bring in somewhere around $80 million to $105 million in its opening weekend in the US, and looking at a total domestic haul between $240 million and $305 million. That’s based on a June analysis from BoxOfficeTheory.

Now, on paper, $100 million isn’t tiny. Recent hits like Michael, Project Hail Mary, and The Devil Wears Prada 2 all opened around $76M–$97M, so Moana is still firmly in the big leagues. But—and it’s a big one—Disney’s other live-action remakes have absolutely dwarfed those numbers:

• Beauty and the Beast (2017): $174 million opening
• The Lion King (2019): $191 million opening
• Lilo & Stitch (2025): $146 million opening
• The Little Mermaid (2023): $95 million opening
• Moana 2 (2024, animated): $139 million opening

Suddenly, $80M–$105M looks rather modest. It’s in the same ballpark as The Little Mermaid, but nowhere near the knockouts Disney has seen before. Plus, let's not forget that Moana 2 and the most recent Lilo & Stitch both crossed the billion mark globally. This live-action Moana? At these projections, that's a very tall order.

So, What’s the Issue?

The forecast is cautious, and here’s why. First, it’s about to get crowded. Moana drops during the fourth weekend of Pixar’s Toy Story 5 and just a week after Illumination’s Minions & Monsters sequel. Then right after, Christopher Nolan is sending The Odyssey our way (17 July), and Supergirl arrives at the end of June. Basically, families will be spoilt for choice, and Moana will have to fight for every ticket.

And then there’s the response to the trailers. Disney rolled out a teaser in November 2025 and the official trailer in March 2026—both on YouTube, both not exactly met with love. Dislike ratios are sitting at roughly three to one on Google Chrome’s 'Return YouTube Dislike' extension. The comment section is brutal, with complaints about excessive CGI (for what’s sold as live-action), grumbling about The Rock’s wig, and people comparing the visuals to dodgy fan-made trailers. Never mind the actual plot; people are stuck on the visuals.

Short gap between this remake and Moana 2 means the franchise is still fresh in people’s minds—possibly too fresh. Wouldn’t be shocked if there’s a bit of audience burnout happening here.

Studio Gamble

The film runs about two hours, and no one’s saying yet exactly how much Disney has put down to make it. For context: Moana 2 cost $150 million, and the live-action Little Mermaid was $100 million. Whether $240M–$305M at the box office cuts it for Disney is anyone’s guess.

'The movie still has a month to improve its outlook as Disney cranks up the advertising and promotion machine.’

If nothing else, they’ve got time to make a stronger case—or at least hope that fans fancy another go-round in the Pacific.