Obsession is crashing the Oscars race for best picture

Now here’s something you don’t see every year: a micro-budget horror flick is muscling its way into the Oscar conversation, and not just as a token genre nod. To be clear, I’m not talking about an arthouse darling or a studio fluke—it’s called 'Obsession', and if early chatter stays on track, it could be up for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards in 2027. Yes, really. And yes, it’s still technically the YouTube generation causing problems. The Oscars ceremony itself drops on 14 March 2027, airing on ABC and Hulu, but the wave is already building.

So who’s in the frame?

This time last year, the Best Picture predictions were your usual safe bets: big book adaptations, mega-budget epics—think 'Project Hail Mary', 'The Odyssey', and 'Dune: Part Three'. Not exactly a recipe for shocks. But now, 'Obsession'—helmed by Curry Barker, a 26-year-old best known for, well, running his own YouTube channel—is being mentioned in the same breath. That’s not an everyday occurrence, especially with the genre’s dicey track record at the Oscars.

Where are the odds sitting?

Early bookies, or at least the data nerds on prediction market Kalshi, have 'Obsession' in the top ten for Best Picture contention (sitting about eighth place, as of mid-June). Not bad, considering the competition looks like this:

• Project Hail Mary – 82%
• The Odyssey – 81%
• Wild Horse Nine – 74%
• Dune: Part Three – 73%
• The Black Ball – 68%
• Digger – 65%
• Fjord – 65%
• Obsession – 46%
• The Adventures of Cliff Booth – 41%
• The Social Reckoning – 36%

Now, before anyone starts placing sofa-risking bets, yes, these odds bounce around a fair bit, and it's early days. But with close to a quarter-million dollars already traded on this one prediction, the numbers have settled just enough to be worth noting. These aren’t fantasy league speculations.

The anomaly at the box office

For context, 'Obsession' wasn’t just a critical hit out of nowhere. On a shoestring $750,000 budget, it racked up a staggering $290 million worldwide—$191 million of that from the US alone. That makes it Focus Features’ biggest earner ever. On a purely financial level, it’s managed to out-run its own opening weekend, taking in $19 million in its fifth domestic weekend, topping the $17 million it made on launch. It’s even creeping up on the box office haul of last year’s Best Picture nominee 'Sinners', which brought in $370 million. Typically, horror films burn bright then vanish—this one’s going the other way.

Oscar chances: more than just Best Picture?

It’s not just the main prize in play, either. Curry Barker might be looking at a nomination for Original Screenplay, and Inde Navarette’s performance as Nikki Freeman is building serious buzz for Best Actress. Frankly, don’t discount a surprise Best Director nod, too, given the scale of the achievement. As ever with the Academy, it’s a numbers game—the more categories you show up in, the better your odds the big one lands as well.

If you’re wondering about Oscar history—yes, horror normally gets the cold shoulder. But there’s precedent: Jordan Peele’s 'Get Out' nabbed four nominations, including Best Picture, so there’s a path if the stars align. If 'Obsession' manages the same, it won’t just be a genre win—it’ll be a signal that Oscar voters are at least considering their younger audience, especially with viewing figures on the slide.