Two Never-Nominated Actors Are Now Favored to Win the 2027 Best Supporting Oscar

Right, blink and you’ll miss it—Oscar predictions for 2027 are already making the rounds and we haven’t even hit the summer stretch of 2026. If you think that’s a bit early, you’re not alone, but that hasn’t stopped the odds-makers (and, let’s be honest, everyone who fancies themselves a film pundit) from putting up their best guesses for next year’s Best Supporting Actor race. And here’s the eyebrow-raiser: the two names leading the pack, John Goodman and Steve Buscemi, have never even been nominated for an Oscar before. Madness, really, considering how long they’ve both been part of the scenery.

Oscar Buzz (Ridiculously) Early

The 99th Academy Awards is set for March 14, 2027, airing as usual on ABC and Hulu. But most of the films sparking up those prediction markets haven’t even made it to cinemas yet. There are titles like ‘The Odyssey’, ‘Dune: Part Three’, ‘Digger’, and ‘The Social Reckoning’ still up the road, meaning the predictions at this stage are about as stable as the British weather.

Still, if you fancy a speculative flutter, here’s how things look based on the latest from Kalshi as of early June 2026:

• John Goodman (‘Digger’) – 56%
• Jeremy Strong (‘The Social Reckoning’) – 48%
• Steve Buscemi (‘Wild Horse Nine’) – 44%
• Paul Giamatti (‘The Statement’) – 41%
• Sam Rockwell (‘Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die’ / ‘Wild Horse Nine’) – 37%
• Robert Pattinson (‘Dune: Part Three’) – 27%
• Tom Holland (‘The Odyssey’) – 27%
• Jesse Plemons (‘Digger’) – 25%
• Colman Domingo (‘Michael’) – 24%
• Miles Telles (‘Piper Tiger’) – 20%
• Riz Ahmed (‘Hamlet’, also in ‘Digger’) – 19%
• Channing Tatum (‘Saturn Return’) – 16%
• Michael Fassbender (‘Hope’) – 15%
• Travis Scott (‘The Odyssey’) – 8%
• Adam Scott (‘The Whisper Man’) – 6%
• Robert De Niro (‘The Whisper Man’) – 6%
• Daniel Craig (‘Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew’) – 3%

That’s a proper scrum of talent—and, if history’s anything to go by, this list will look wildly different once the films actually come out and people realise who’s been given five minutes of screentime.

Goodman in "Digger", Buscemi in "Wild Horse Nine"

Both Goodman and Buscemi are getting their buzz for roles in projects with a slightly oddball pedigree. Goodman’s turn as the US President in ‘Digger’, which is a satiric black comedy directed by the ever-unpredictable Alejandro G. Iñárritu (he’s won two Oscars already, so don’t bet against him knowing how to play this game), is getting heaps of early praise. That film’s stacked with other Oscar chatter as well—Tom Cruise, Sandra Hüller, Jesse Plemons and Riz Ahmed are all reportedly in the mix for acting nominations.

Buscemi, meanwhile, is set to pop up as a CIA bureau chief named MJ in ‘Wild Horse Nine’. Properly British project, this one: penned and helmed by Martin McDonagh, who’s got a bit of a track record for wrangling strong ensemble performances. Interestingly, both John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell could also bag nominations for their turns in the same film. Not every day you see Buscemi and Malkovich in the same frame—could be worth it for that alone.

Variety and the Curveballs

Variety chuckled along with all this and made Goodman their frontrunner, but didn’t give Buscemi much of a look. Instead, they tossed in a handful of wildcards who aren’t even in the betting markets, just to wind everyone up: D'Pharoah Woon-A-Tai for ‘A Long Winter’, Mark Ruffalo for ‘Being Heumann’, Guy Pearce for ‘Ink’, Antonio Banderas for ‘Tony’, Paul Dano for ‘The Chaperones’, and so on. There’s also Charles Melton in ‘Saturn Return’, Tom Courtenay in ‘Queen at the Sea’, and August Diehl in ‘Fatherland’ jostling for attention outside the main conversation.

'How Have They Never Been Nominated?'

Here’s the bit that really blows the mind: for all their decades of standout work, neither Goodman nor Buscemi has ever been nominated for an Oscar. Goodman, of course, is still best remembered by many for ‘Roseanne’, but he did get a Golden Globe nomination for ‘Barton Fink’, and picked up plenty of love for ‘The Big Lebowski’, ‘10 Cloverfield Lane’, and ‘The Artist’. Buscemi, on the other hand, landed major awards for his run in ‘Boardwalk Empire’ and was brilliant in the likes of ‘Ghost World’, ‘Fargo’, ‘The Death of Stalin’ and, naturally, ‘Reservoir Dogs’.