Only one film might outgross Avengers: Doomsday in 2026 — if it sticks its date
New long‑range forecasts suggest Avengers: Doomsday could be outgunned by a fellow Marvel title in 2026 — though a calendar quirk may skew the final tally.
Now, here's an odd one. You'd think Avengers: Doomsday would walk off with the biggest box office prize in 2026 without breaking a sweat — it's Marvel, after all, and every superhero under the sun is in it. But, according to some actual betting markets, it's looking like another Marvel giant might pip it to the post this year. If you're expecting that to go down smoothly with Marvel's marketing department, think again.
'Brand New Day leads Polymarket odds with a 74% chance to take the box office crown in 2026.'
Why Spider-Man Could Outswing the Avengers
The film that's supposedly got the edge? Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tom Holland's fourth solo outing as everyone's favourite web-slinger. Polymarket, which lets people place bets on real world outcomes, currently gives Spider-Man a whopping 74% shot at nabbing the 'top-grossing film' label for 2026. Doomsday, on the other hand, has just 15% of the action. Seems wild, given how obsessed Marvel fans are with their team-ups, but there's a bit of a technicality at play here — it all comes down to the release calendar.
Brand New Day lands in cinemas on 31 July 2026, which means it's got five solid months to rack up ticket sales before the annual tally closes. Avengers: Doomsday, meanwhile, doesn't arrive until 17 December 2026. So unless it smashes some kind of world record in its first two weeks, most of its money will technically count towards 2027. Nice for awards season maybe, but not great for anyone wanting a big shiny '2026' stat to wave around. Both films have already kicked off their ticket sales — because, naturally, fans want to grab a seat before the best bits get spoiled online.
What the Films Are Actually About
Both of these flicks are going neck and neck in the 'most ambitious crossover' department, though in very different ways. Spider-Man: Brand New Day has Peter Parker up against a stack of new baddies — think Hulk, Scorpion, and Tombstone — plus there are some persistent rumours about Sadie Sink joining the cast, but nothing official yet. Spider-Man's powers are getting a bit of a shakeup too, and he'll team up with Punisher/Frank Castle, which could either be brilliant or just very loud.
Meanwhile, Avengers: Doomsday is going even bigger: Avengers, X-Men, and Fantastic Four all banding together for a multiversal clash against Doctor Doom. The grand Marvel stew will keep simmering into the next year as well, since Avengers: Secret Wars is scheduled for that exact same December slot on 17 December 2027. Just to clarify for any completists: Holland's Spider-Man isn't in the Doomsday cast, but apparently the new Spider-Man film will explain where he's got to. Yes, we've reached the 'films explaining where other characters are' phase of the multiverse.