Toy Story 5 Poised to Shatter Several Box Office Records

If you thought Pixar were done ransacking your childhood nostalgia piggy bank, think again—Toy Story 5 is coming, and the early numbers being thrown around for its box office are so big you could mistake them for phone numbers. Let’s take a proper look at what’s going on, because there are some details here that frankly surprised even me.

Fresh Faces, Familiar Hands

One thing causing a bit of a ripple is that Andrew Stanton, who might ring a bell as the bloke behind Wall-E and Finding Nemo, is making his Toy Story directorial debut. Not that he’s a stranger to this, mind you—he’s written three of the films already, so it’s more a case of moving chairs than parachuting in a total outsider. For what it’s worth, he’s making some noise that this definitely won’t be the last one in the series either.

What's New With the Toys?

Trailers are out and, in a twist, Jessie (so, Joan Cusack) is now the top toy. She’s running the show until she needs back-up from Woody (Tom Hanks) and Buzz (Tim Allen), because their owner, Bonnie (Scarlett Spears), may have moved on from playing with her collection—she’s apparently glued to a Lilypad tablet now, voiced by Greta Lee. If that hits close to home, it’s probably by design. The whole plot seems to tap straight into current parental panic over kids swapping action figures for screen time, so expect Pixar to be extremely on the nose here.

Box Office Forecast: Through the Roof

Box office trackers are already betting big. If you’re into specific numbers (I am), here’s what’s being projected:

• Opening weekend (domestic): $130 million to $160 million (19–21 June 2026)
• Total US/Canada run: $465 million to $602 million

These figures, courtesy of BoxOfficeTheory by way of someone on Reddit’s r/boxoffice, suggest Toy Story 5 could smash domestic records—for context, the upcoming Super Mario Galaxy Movie is currently forecast to debut with $131 million, so Toy Story may well leapfrog that.

For the whole year, Super Galaxy Movie is predicted to rake in $424 million domestically, so if Toy Story 5 lands anywhere near the upper end of its range, it’ll be tough to outdo. The global situation is even wilder: the film would need to cross $983 million to become the highest-grossing movie of 2026. That’s actually not a wild ask—both Toy Story 3 and 4 easily cleared $1 billion, and ticket prices have only climbed since then.

Disney are keeping schtum on the actual production budget, but given the last two efforts both burned $200 million, you’d have to assume the bill won’t be far off that again.

Why Everyone's Betting on This One

A few things put Toy Story 5 ahead of the rest this summer:

• Directing by Stanton, a studio stalwart with a strong record.
• Plots that mirror real-life concerns (kids and their gadgets).
• The absolute galaxy of voice talent: Keanu Reeves, Alan Cumming, Bad Bunny, Conan O'Brien—all in the mix with returning regulars.

It’s easy to worry about Lightyear’s flop in 2022 (that’s the one that barely made its money back, for the record), but no one really thinks that’ll rub off on this actual Toy Story sequel. People care a lot more about the original gang.

A Loaded Release Calendar—but Who’s Really Competing?

The schedule in June 2026 is packed, but—let’s be real—most studios have legged it away from going head-to-head with Toy Story 5. Masters of the Universe and the next Scary Movie both land two weeks ahead, Disclosure Day is a week prior, and only Supergirl (26 June) and Minions & Monsters (1 July) are close enough to throw a bit of shade. The real risk is for these releases, not Pixar—Toy Story is more likely to kneecap their box office than vice versa.

Stanton’s Take on Jessie as Top Dog

With Woody stepping down as ringleader, people have asked why Jessie’s now the MVP. Stanton has given some hints that it’s simply a natural progression—she’s earned her stripes, and it also sets the ground for yet more stories down the line.

'Pixar has yet to miss with a direct sequel in the Toy Story line, with nearly $2.9 billion in global box office across four entries since 1995.'