Toy Story 5 Poised to Dominate the Box Office, Early Forecasts Upend Expectations

Well, here we go—Pixar are loading up the toy chest again, and Toy Story 5 looks like it’s about to bulldoze the box office. If you thought they’d settled things with Toy Story 4, apparently not: the gang’s back for what’s shaping up to be a colossal payday, even before anyone’s seen a single frame.

Huge Numbers Before Release—The Forecast Is In

BoxOffice Pro have dropped their early long-range predictions and, put bluntly, it’s looking massive: current estimates have Toy Story 5 pulling somewhere between $150 million and $175 million in the US over opening weekend. That’s an even chunkier prediction than last week (then it was $130 to $160 million—so it’s already surged up).

For comparison: the biggest opener so far in 2026 is The Super Mario Galaxy Movie with $131 million, while A Minecraft Movie earlier this year managed $162 million, and Lilo & Stitch (live-action, inexplicably) had a $146 million start. Toy Story 4 opened to $120 million, Toy Story 3 to $110 million, so the new film is set to outgun all its predecessors at the starting line.

If this forecast plays out, Toy Story 5 could be that rare animated film busting through the $1 billion worldwide barrier this year. (For reference, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie has almost done it, sitting at $993 million right now.)

Here’s the Plot—And, Erm, Lily the Tablet?

Details on the film itself: It’s out on June 19 in the US. This time, Jessie (voiced again by Joan Cusack) is pushed to the front, with Woody (Tom Hanks) and Buzz Lightyear (Tim Allen) by her side, as they deal with the arrival of a tablet called Lilypad, or ‘Lily’ (voiced by Greta Lee—possibly my favourite bit of casting, just because it’s so weird). The gang are fighting for their child’s attention…and yes, apparently the main antagonist is quite literally an iPad. Make of that what you will.

Why Now? Why Jessie?

The director, Andrew Stanton, has addressed the big switch in focus: why is Jessie leading the charge this time, and not Woody? According to Stanton:

'We had gone to the well of Woody so much, I just felt like he needs a break. Jessie was just so prime, probably even a movie ago, to deal with the stuff that’s gone on with her, and she was so ready to be the next leader of the toys in the room.'

Hard to argue: Jessie was due a promotion, and let’s face it, Tom Hanks probably has other things on his diary.

Will It Actually Succeed?

There’s a lot riding on this one, because Disney haven’t exactly been on a winning streak with their Pixar originals recently. Turning Red (2022), Elemental (2023), and Elio (2025) were all underwhelming at the box office. In fact, the last real smash for Pixar was Inside Out 2, which went absolutely ballistic and hoovered up $1.7 billion worldwide in 2024.

People clearly still want what Pixar’s dishing out when it’s a proven franchise or a major sequel. This is backed up by how well Moana 2 and Zootopia 2 have done for Disney lately. Even, weirdly, when the formula tripped—Lightyear wasn’t exactly beloved by critics or audiences, and it only just clawed back its hefty $200 million budget (needing closer to $500 million to really break even, which tells you how expensive these animated epics have gotten). But that one-off stumble basically hasn’t dampened the hype for a core Toy Story sequel at all.

The Competition—Not Much, Frankly

A look at the calendar shows Toy Story 5 has done a canny job dodging the bigger landmines: aside from The Death of Robin Hood with Hugh Jackman (odd one, that), also debuting 19 June, most other summer blockbusters have politely moved out the way. The next really big challenger will be Supergirl (arriving the following week on 26 June), and after that, Minions & Monsters comes bouncing in on 1 July. For the opening stretch at least, Toy Story 5 gets a clear run at the money.

In Brief: The Numbers and Who’s Who

• Opening US weekend forecast: $150-175 million (biggest for any Toy Story film)
• Director: Andrew Stanton
• Main cast: Jessie (Joan Cusack), Woody (Tom Hanks), Buzz Lightyear (Tim Allen), Lily the tablet (Greta Lee)
• Out in US: 19 June
• Major summer competition: The Death of Robin Hood (same day), Supergirl (1 week later), Minions & Monsters (13 days later)
• Pixar’s previous summer sequels (Incredibles 2, Finding Dory) were massive hits
• Pixar’s last major hit: Inside Out 2 ($1.7 billion worldwide)