The Mandalorian and Grogu Are Tracking for Disney’s Biggest Box Office Letdown Yet

Well, Star Wars is officially gearing up for its first trip back to multiplexes since The Rise of Skywalker landed with a dull thud in late 2019. But if you’re expecting The Mandalorian and Grogu to bring the thunder, brace yourself: the early box office predictions are, let’s say, less than stellar for a galaxy far, far away.

The Numbers: Not Exactly The Force Awakens

The Hollywood Reporter says The Mandalorian and Grogu is slated for about $80 million during its opening Memorial Day weekend (that’s a four-day holiday stretch). If you think that sounds solid, you’re not wrong—except, you know, this is Star Wars. By franchise standards, it’s kind of an awkward pancake.

For context: Solo: A Star Wars Story—which is currently the Disney-era’s box office underachiever—grabbed a $100 million opening on Memorial Day weekend back in 2018. And that $100 million was actually just from Friday to Sunday. The Mandalorian and Grogu’s $80 million includes the bonus holiday Monday. So yeah, this will technically be the lowest opening for a live-action Star Wars movie since Disney bought Lucasfilm.

Sizing It Up: Opening Weekend Money Table

Just to give you an idea of where all the Star Wars movies started at the box office (not accounting for inflation), here’s the unadjusted leaderboard:

• The Force Awakens – $247.9M (2015)
• The Last Jedi – $220M (2017)
• The Rise of Skywalker – $177.3M (2019)
• Rogue One – $155M (2016)
• Revenge of the Sith* – $108.4M (2005)
• Solo – $84.4M (2018)
• Attack of the Clones* – $80M (2002)
• The Phantom Menace* – $64.8M (1999)
• Return of the Jedi – $23M (1983)
• The Clone Wars (animated) – $14.6M (2008)
• The Empire Strikes Back – $4.9M (1980)
• A New Hope – $1.5M (1977)

*These opened on a Thursday, so numbers are a little weird.

Is It a Disaster? Not Really…

So here’s the twist: while $80 million won’t land The Mandalorian and Grogu in the record books, it’s not actually in flop territory. Why? Because this movie is reportedly Disney’s cheapest live-action Star Wars flick to date—budgeted (apparently) at $166.4 million. Compare that to Solo, which famously racked up a budget somewhere in the $300 million neighborhood thanks to massive reshoots (let’s never forget the Ron Howard drama), and The Mandalorian and Grogu instantly looks like less of a gamble.

Perspective Shift: TV Shows on the Big Screen

And for anyone rolling their eyes about the numbers, keep in mind: this is the first Star Wars movie spun directly out of a TV series, with its original cast. If you look at similar situations—films that continue a TV show instead of rebooting with new people—this actually holds up well. The Simpsons Movie bowed with $74 million over its first weekend in 2007, and that’s still tops for the ‘TV cast returns’ category. The Mandalorian and Grogu is on track to beat that, plus bigger than any TV-to-movie launches like Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba, Sex and the City, Downton Abbey, or The X-Files.

As one wise bearded space wizard once told a certain farm boy:

"These latest opening-weekend projections are only disappointing from a certain point of view."

What Happens Next?

It’ll be interesting to see how The Mandalorian and Grogu stacks up against summer tentpoles like Supergirl, Moana, and The Odyssey. The days of Star Wars automatically dominating the box office are clearly behind us.

Disney’s about to go full-throttle with promotion starting May 4th (yep, Star Wars Day). Expect exclusive footage popping up in IMAX theaters and a fresh wave of kid-targeted marketing—including Burger King tie-ins and more toys than your living room can actually hold. The idea: they’re aiming this movie at both lifelong fans and the youngest kids who haven’t set foot in a Star Wars theater yet.

The Final Word

So: is The Mandalorian and Grogu about to break box office records? Nope. But it’s also not the disaster some doom-mongers are predicting. With its modest budget and built-in fan base, it’s probably going to do just fine—and it could even set a new standard for TV crossovers on the big screen. Just don’t expect a Force Awakens-type stampede.