The Country Poised to Dominate Eurovision 2026

All the tracks for Eurovision 2026 are finally out, and (no surprises if you follow the betting markets) Finland is already being treated like the big boss of this year’s contest. If you somehow missed the pre-show drama, we’re heading back to Vienna for the 70th anniversary edition—yep, back to the Wiener Stadthalle, the exact same arena that sold out when Conchita Wurst was reigning supreme in 2015.

The semi-finals kick off soon: first round on May 12, second on May 14, then they crown the champ in the grand final on May 16. But hey, it wouldn’t be Eurovision these days without some politics in the background—so here’s what you need to know before you pull together your scorecards or, let’s be honest, your drinking games.

Protests? Check. Comebacks? Also check.

Five countries are skipping Eurovision this year, all refusing to participate as a protest over the war in Gaza. If you noticed some regulars missing from your playlist, that’s why.

On the flip side, Bulgaria, Moldova, and Romania are back in the competition after taking some recent time off. (Maybe they just missed the glitter and key changes?)

Finland Surges Way Ahead—And It’s Not Even Close

Let’s be real: if prediction markets are any indication, everyone else is fighting for second place. Finland is leading by a ridiculous margin on basically every major site and poll you can name.

• Polymarket (the crypto-betting giant, if you care):
  - Finland (‘Liekinheitin’ by Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen): 36%
  - Denmark (‘Før vi går hjem’ by Søren Torpegaard Lund): 13%
  - Greece (‘Ferto’ by Akylas): 13%
  - France (‘Regarde!’ by Monroe): 10%
  - Australia (‘Eclipse’ by Delta Goodrem): 6%
  - Israel (‘Michelle’ by Noam Bettan): 5%
  - Sweden (‘My System’ by Felicia): 3%
  - Italy (‘Per sempre si’ by Sal Da Vinci): 3%
  - Everyone else: 2% or less—and in most cases, way less, practically just rounding errors at the bottom.

(For the truly obsessed: The pot on Polymarket is over $118 million, by the way. That’s a lot of confidence in flying Finnish violinists.)

Over on Kalshi, the numbers only budge a hair—Finland’s still on top at 37%. Greece is a distant second at 12%. Denmark and France are tied at 11%, and Australia is just a little behind at 7%. Israel, which is smack in the middle of the global conversation for entirely different reasons, is sitting at 4%.

Not into betting? There’s a fan poll running right now with over 100,000 votes. Finland is dominating there too with 20%. Denmark’s in a healthy but distant second at 11%, and a three-way dogfight for third between France, Greece, and Sweden at 6% each. Australia slides into sixth with 5%. Israel does way better in the betting odds than in the public poll—only 3%, barely scraping into twelfth place.

Harsh Reality: If Finland Wins, It’s Kind of a Big Deal

If this actually pans out, Finland’s about to win Eurovision for only the second time ever. Last time was 2006, when Lordi broke everyone’s brains (and maybe eardrums) with ‘Hard Rock Hallelujah’. This year, their entry is a whole different flavor: Finnish pop star Pete Parkkonen and legendary violinist Linda Lampenius mashing up vocals and strings—with a thumping beat that’s got at least 3.8 million YouTube views and counting. Eurovision fans, you have spoken.

'Liekinheitin' is a pretty wild mix: Parkkonen’s big choruses, Lampenius shredding the violin, and so much drama it practically demands pyrotechnics on the night. Frankly, if they don’t have fire on stage, what are we even doing here?

So, there you go: unless the live shows reveal some shocker (always a risk at Eurovision, let’s be honest), it’s Finland’s year to lose. Just try to get that chorus out of your head after you hear it.