The Box Office Math That Could Keep The Mandalorian and Grogu From Breaking Even

If you were hoping Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu would be an undisputed smash at the box office, well, brace yourself. The film has been out since 22 May, and honestly, things aren’t looking especially rosy. Let’s dive into the numbers and see what’s truly going on behind the scenes—it’s an interesting (and slightly concerning) picture, even by Star Wars standards.

Opening Weekend Blues (And Memories of Solo)

There’s been a fair bit of online chatter because The Mandalorian & Grogu just delivered the lowest opening of any Star Wars film to date—only $82 million domestically over the opening weekend. If you’re thinking, ‘Hang on, wasn’t Solo a massive flop?’, you’re right. Solo: A Star Wars Story opened a shade higher at $84 million in 2018, then went on to lose a small fortune: $392 million on a $275 million production budget. Now, people are legitimately concerned The Mandalorian & Grogu might be on the same slippery slope.

Where’s the Money Gone So Far?

By 28 May, the movie’s global takings stood at $167 million ($104m US, $63m from everywhere else), based on Box Office Mojo’s figures. It is, admittedly, one of the better openers of 2024, at least according to a pretty weak year so far. Still, no one is breaking out the champagne, because the road ahead looks anything but simple.

How Much Does This Thing Need to Make?

• Budget: The official production cost sits at $165 million—helped along by generous tax credits for filming in California. (A welcome change for a Star Wars film, frankly.)
• Break-Even Maths: Hollywood’s usual rule of thumb is that a big studio film needs to make at least 2.5 times its production budget at the box office—that’s about $412 million here.
• The Real Benchmark: It’s not that simple, though—a report from The Hollywood Reporter says Disney insiders reckon the real break-even point is somewhere between $500 and $600 million globally. If you’re bold enough to aim for the upper end, that’s a tall order, especially with a crowded release schedule looming over the next couple of months.

Hope from the Star Wars Brand?

There is a glimmer of hope, if you care to squint. The $81 million domestic opening matches up quite closely to Project Hail Mary, another recent big-budget, family-friendly space flick. That one (with Ryan Gosling and a cuddly alien partner) has gone on to clear $676 million worldwide. With Pedro Pascal in the lead, and the sheer draw of the Star Wars logo, you might think there’s a similar upside here.

The reviews, though, have been all over the place. Critics on Rotten Tomatoes have only given it an unexciting 62% (we were actually a bit less generous ourselves), but regular punters seem much happier, awarding it a handy 88%. Plus, the film’s scored a solid CinemaScore, so the word of mouth could help keep it afloat. Then again, that’s what they said for The Marvels.

The Overseas Problem

Here’s where things start to properly wobble. Project Hail Mary earned nearly half its cash outside the US, but with The Mandalorian & Grogu, less than 40% is coming from overseas. For a global franchise as massive as Star Wars, that’s a troubling sign. The international audience just doesn’t seem all that bothered, which could make it near-impossible to hit those lofty break-even numbers.

What’s Next?

Projections for week two are, let’s say, not brilliant. Forecasts have the film dropping down to only $30–35 million in the States, which, believe it or not, is less than the latest prediction for A24’s Backrooms opening this weekend.

And if that wasn’t enough, June brings a stampede of major new releases: Masters of the Universe, Scary Movie, Disclosure Day, Toy Story 5, and Supergirl. There’s every chance people’s attention (and wallets) will quickly shift to the next shiny thing, which could leave The Mandalorian & Grogu struggling for oxygen in a very crowded cinema landscape.