One Director Poised to Dethrone Christopher Nolan at the 2027 Oscars

Right, so it looked like Christopher Nolan had the 2027 Best Director Oscar in the bag for The Odyssey. You know, fresh off his Oppenheimer win, and now coming back with a massive $250 million reimagining of the Greek epic—plus a cast roster you pretty much need a whiteboard to keep track of: Matt Damon, Tom Holland, Robert Pattinson, Zendaya, Anne Hathaway, and plenty of others. Honestly, when someone tells you Nolan's the frontrunner, it's hard to argue. But apparently, it's not that simple anymore.

Martin McDonagh: From Outside Shot to Main Rival

Here’s where things get interesting—and a bit surprising. Enter Martin McDonagh with his latest, Wild Horse Nine. As recently as April, he wasn’t even considered a real threat for the trophy—odds had him down at a measly 2%. But if you follow the betting markets (in this case, Kalshi), McDonagh’s now at 23%. Nolan’s still slightly ahead at 26%, but that margin has seriously tightened.

"Christopher Nolan (The Odyssey): 26%
Martin McDonagh (Wild Horse Nine): 23%
Phil Lord & Christopher Miller (Project Hail Mary): 12%
Alejandro G. Iñárritu (Digger): 11%
David Fincher (The Adventures of Cliff Booth): 9%
Andrew Haigh (A Long Winter): 8%
Steven Spielberg (Disclosure Day): 8%
Danny Boyle (Ink): 4%
Joel Coen (Jack of Spades): 3%
Na Hong-jin (Hope): 2%
Tie: less than 1%"

Those are the odds as of the end of May. Now, to be clear, Martin McDonagh hasn't actually won Best Director yet, but Oscar voters clearly don't mind him being in the conversation. He picked up Best Live Action Short Film nearly two decades back, and he's been up for Best Director—most recently for The Banshees of Inisherin—as well as screenplay and picture nods for In Bruges and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

Who's Not On the List (And Probably Should Be)

If you’ve skimmed that shortlist above and thought ‘Hang on, where’s Denis Villeneuve?’—you’re not the only one. Despite turning heads with Dune: Part Three, neither he nor a few other directors have made it onto these particular odds, which is, frankly, a bit baffling. Here are some notably absent names:

• Denis Villeneuve: Dune: Part Three
• Olivia Wilde: The Invite
• Greta Gerwig: Narnia: The Magician's Nephew
• Ryusuke Hamaguchi: All of a Sudden
• Pawel Pawlikowski: Fatherland (formerly "1949")

One to watch: Pawlikowski, who just picked up the Cannes Best Director prize (shared with Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi for The Black Ball). That jury even included Demi Moore and Chloé Zhao, so it's not exactly lightweight praise.

Chances by the Numbers

To complicate things further, there’s a separate betting market on who’ll actually score a nomination. Here, the numbers jump a fair bit:

• Nolan: 82%
• McDonagh: 57%
• Villeneuve: 54% (so not forgotten, just a bit behind the curve)
• Spielberg: 36%
• Pawlikowski: 34%

Clearly, the field is more open than those winner odds would have you believe.

So, What’s Wild Horse Nine?

Not the most conventional Oscar bait, I’ll say that. Set just before the 1973 Chilean coup, Wild Horse Nine follows two CIA officers—Chris and Lee—played by John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell. Their bureau chief MJ, played by Steve Buscemi, dispatches them to Easter Island for an ambiguous assignment. Things start going sideways when Chris gets chummy with a pair of rebellious local students (Mariana di Girolamo and Ailín Salas). Parker Posey and Tom Waits fill out the supporting cast as Lee's wife Marge and Chris's brother. If you like your historical thrillers a bit off-kilter, this ticks plenty of boxes. The release date is already set: 6 November 2026.

Actor Races Heating Up

It's not just directors feeling the heat—John Malkovich is getting early chatter as a possible Best Actor winner for Wild Horse Nine, despite never clinching an Oscar in his career. His big competition? Tom Cruise, apparently set to make a run for Digger.