10 Sure Bets That Became Unexpected Box Office Bombs

You never really know what'll flop at the movies, do you? Some films show up looking like guaranteed hits—big stars, big nostalgia, proven franchises—and then face-plant hard enough to shock everyone, studio accountants included. Of course, there are the obvious landmines (Tron, I’m glaring at you), but sometimes, things with every possible advantage still go splat. Whether it’s luck, timing, creative choices, or baffling streaming decisions, Hollywood keeps finding new ways to lose money at the box office. Here’s a rundown of ten movies that bombed when it seemed impossible…yet, looking back, you can kind of see how it happened.

• Rise of the Guardians (2012)
  DreamWorks Animation was on a roll back in the 2000s. Anything they touched—Shrek, Kung Fu Panda, you name it—made a pile of cash. So, how did 'Rise of the Guardians' flop? The pitch was 'superheroes but with Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, and friends,' tossed in with a cast that included Chris Pine, Alec Baldwin, Hugh Jackman, Isla Fisher, and Jude Law. Critics liked it, families liked it, it pulled in over $300 million worldwide… and still lost $87 million once all the marketing money burned up. That’s what happens with a $145 million production budget and DreamWorks-sized marketing spends. But, hey, at least it didn’t stop director Peter Ramsey from co-directing the Oscar-winning 'Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse' later on.
• Terminator: Dark Fate (2019)
  After a trio of pretty dismal sequels, 'Terminator: Dark Fate' looked like it might finally get the franchise back on track. Arnold came back. Linda Hamilton came back. James Cameron put his name back in the credits. All the right nostalgia buttons were pushed. But general audiences saw through it—too many dud sequels had burned them out. The $29 million opening weekend put the writing on the wall, and the film needed a massive $450 million just to break even thanks to a production/marketing budget nearing $300 million. Instead, it made $261 million globally and lost upwards of $120 million, even though this was arguably the best 'Terminator' movie since T2.
• West Side Story (2021)
  Steven Spielberg tackling one of the most iconic musicals ever should've been a slam-dunk. The original film is box office royalty when adjusted for inflation. But between COVID delays (almost a full year holding pattern), audience hesitancy heading back to theaters, and a release date that landed it right in the blast radius of 'Spider-Man: No Way Home,' things got ugly fast. Reviews fell over themselves to praise it, but $76 million worldwide on a $100 million budget doesn't cut it, especially with a $300 million breakeven point being tossed around. The genre and the timing just didn’t play nice with each other.
• The Matrix Resurrections (2021)
  Warner Bros. tried something bold (or desperate): they put every 2021 film in theaters and on HBO Max the same day. 'The Matrix Resurrections' got caught in that experiment, but even without the couch option, it probably wasn’t going to light up the box office. The trailer sold excitement, but the movie itself—with all its meta weirdness—left a lot of audiences scratching their heads. Add in competition from Spider-Man and an 18-year gap since the last film, and it’s no shock that $160 million worldwide wasn’t anywhere near enough for a film that reportedly cost about $190 million (plus whatever stacked up in marketing). You can almost make a good argument it’ll be more loved over time, but it wasn’t loved enough in the moment.
• Lightyear (2022)
  Pixar going back to theaters after a streak of Disney+ debuts should’ve been a celebration, especially with Buzz Lightyear onboard. The concept? An in-universe sci-fi blockbuster that the 'Toy Story' toy was based on. High-concept, maybe too clever for its own good. Audiences shrugged. It opened to $50 million (meh for Pixar), then immediately got trampled by 'Jurassic World.' After that, it vanished from the charts, finishing up with $226 million worldwide against a $200 million budget. Toss in the fact that everyone figured it’d be on Disney+ soon anyway (since that was the new normal), and the $106 million write-down Disney took isn’t hard to understand.
• The Marvels (2023)
  Remember when Captain Marvel shocked everyone and hit $1 billion in 2019? Sequel math should be easy. Instead, 'The Marvels' became the MCU’s first real money-loser. The plot involved bringing in Ms. Marvel and Monica Rambeau, which is great… unless you now need to catch up on two separate Disney+ shows to follow along. After a long stretch of so-so Marvel movies and too many spin-off series, most casual fans basically threw in the towel. The film eked out $206 million worldwide on a $307 million budget. As a quote from the MCU might put it: 'That’s not how this story was supposed to go.'
• Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (2024)
  'Mad Max: Fury Road' is pretty much the gold standard for modern action movies, so a prequel seemed like an easy win. Critics liked it, the National Board of Review put it in their Top Ten of 2024, and yet when 'Furiosa' landed, it was a dud. It managed a number one spot over Memorial Day weekend, sure—but with just $26 million, one of the worst holidays for box office in decades. Final tally: about $174 million globally, less than half of what 'Fury Road' made. The losses reportedly clock in between $75 million and $95 million, and you can bet that’s throwing some cold water on more Mad Max films anytime soon.
• Scott Pilgrim vs. The World (2010)
  If there ever was a movie built to launch a franchise for the internet generation, it was 'Scott Pilgrim.' Edgar Wright directing, loaded with now-big-name stars before they were famous, nerd culture on the rise. But its release weekend stacked it up against 'The Expendables,' and audiences chose explosions over video game references. Critics loved it, but a $10 million opening and $47 million worldwide was well short of the $60 million budget. The good news? It exploded in popularity later, so sometimes box office isn’t the final word.
• Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023)
  Indiana Jones may be a classic, but apparently he isn’t timeless. Even 'Crystal Skull,' for all its flaws, made a fortune back in 2008. But 'Dial of Destiny' cost nearly $240 million to make, needed close to $500 million just to break even, and wound up with $384 million worldwide—less than half what 'Crystal Skull' pulled in. Spielberg sat this one out, but honestly, the bigger problem was that 15 years is a long time for a character to rest out of the zeitgeist. Nostalgia fades, and a lot of new moviegoers just didn’t care. Kind of a sad exit for Dr. Jones.
• Solo: A Star Wars Story (2018)
  Star Wars used to be the closest thing Hollywood had to a 'sure thing.' 'Solo' proved otherwise. The film made $393 million globally—decent for most movies, but a box office faceplant for Star Wars once you factor in a $300 million budget that was ballooned by expensive reshoots (sparked by mid-production director swaps from Phil Lord & Chris Miller to Ron Howard). Disney wanted another 'Rogue One'-style hit. Instead, 'Solo' came out too soon after 'The Last Jedi,' and Harrison Ford’s absence as young Han was a huge ask for audiences. The result nuked Lucasfilm’s spin-off movie plans for years.

There you have it: a masterclass in how no franchise, director, or beloved character is totally bulletproof from the box office flop. If you ever needed a reminder that in Hollywood, no win is guaranteed, just look at this list.

'That’s not how this story was supposed to go.'