The Director Everyone Is Betting on to Sweep the 2027 Oscars

Might seem a bit absurd to start talking about the 2027 Oscars when the 2026 ceremony is barely in the rearview mirror—Paul Thomas Anderson just snagged his first Best Director trophy for One Battle After Another. But in Oscar land, there’s always someone out there making predictions before half the movies are even finished shooting. And, right now, one director has a serious lead in the early betting for the Academy’s top directing prize next year.

Christopher Nolan: The One to Beat (Again)

If you’re the betting type, you should know that Christopher Nolan is already ahead of the pack for the 2027 Best Director Oscar—at least according to prediction market Kalshi as of the end of April. He’s sitting pretty with a 39% chance to win for his splashy summer blockbuster, The Odyssey, which is set to hit theaters on July 17, 2026.

For some context, here's how the current odds shake out for 2027's Best Director race according to that prediction market:

• Christopher Nolan (The Odyssey) - 39%
• David Fincher (The Adventures of Cliff Booth) - 14%
• Andrew Haigh (A Long Winter) - 13%
• Joel Coen (Jack of Spades) - 12%
• Danny Boyle (Ink) - 11%
• Steven Spielberg (Disclosure Day) - 8%
• Phil Lord & Christopher Miller (Project Hail Mary) - 7%
• Na Hong-jin (Hope) - 6%
• Martin McDonagh (Wild Horse Nine) - 2%

It’s also worth mentioning that only five directors actually end up with Oscar nominations. So if you see your favorite filmmaker near the bottom, well, they’ve got some ground to make up before January’s official list comes out.

Who Else Is in the Mix (or Missing Entirely)?

Here’s where things get a little odd. The top-line prediction market above leaves out a few pretty big names. If you look at a different Kalshi market on potential nominees, suddenly Pawel Pawlikowski shows up for 1949 / Fatherland with a 37% shot, Greta Gerwig jumps in the conversation for Narnia: The Magician's Nephew (24%), and Olivia Wilde’s there for The Invite (10%). Nolan’s still king in that set too, with a whopping 83% chance at nabbing a nomination.

But… no Alejandro G. Iñárritu for Digger? That’s surprising, especially since the movie could finally land Tom Cruise an Oscar for acting. Also missing: Aaron Sorkin, who’s got a sequel to The Social Network coming, and Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Three. You’d expect Villeneuve to be in the mix since it wraps up his trilogy and could theoretically pull even more Oscar attention than the last one.

The Odyssey: Big Budget, Big Cast, Big Expectations

Nolan’s doing anything but dialing it in this time around. The Odyssey is packing a $250 million budget—so yes, on the high end even for ‘big’ summer movies. But what really sets it up for Oscar buzz is its cast list: Matt Damon, Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, Zendaya, Robert Pattinson, Lupita Nyong'o, and Charlize Theron (she’s playing Calypso, not Circe, if you heard the older rumors).

Nolan himself let slip that this movie won’t be the three-hour marathon that Oppenheimer was, which is probably a relief to folks with small bladders and short attention spans. In any case, this is his biggest swing since, well, the last biggest swing.

'It’s not going to be as long as Oppenheimer,' Nolan recently told the press. (Which, yes, counts as a promise.)

Is Best Picture Also a Lock?

For those wondering if Nolan’s film is just a director’s race favorite or a wider frontrunner: at one point in April, The Odyssey was already 19 points ahead of Project Hail Mary for Best Picture. That gap’s only growing—Nolan’s movie is currently at 37% to win Best Picture, with Dune: Part Three now trailing far behind at 13%.

The Bottom Line

A year out from the nominations, Nolan is in a familiar spot—as the early favorite, loved by both prediction markets and the kind of Oscar follower who should probably get outdoors more often. That being said, plenty could change. Some big names aren’t even being talked about yet, and the real wildcards—the movies nobody’s seen—are still months away from showing their cards. But if you had to bet right now, it would take a pretty bold move to put money against Nolan.