Temper expectations: The Hunger Games prequel movie’s box office predictions won’t break the franchise record

Another year, another attempt to squeeze a bit more life out of The Hunger Games juggernaut. The latest prequel film, Sunrise on the Reaping, is nearly here, and it looks like the box office hype machine is long out of arrows — though not entirely out of steam.

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire opened at $158 million in 2013, setting a franchise record no follow-up has managed to challenge.

The Numbers Game

The industry types reckon Sunrise on the Reaping should take in something north of $60 million in the US its first weekend, with the more optimistic punters whispering about perhaps $70 million — this is for its debut over Thanksgiving, of course, which is always a busy spot in the cinema calendar. All right, that sounds like a solid launch… until you peek at the franchise's own history. The 2023 prequel The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes walked away with a comparatively measly $44.6 million when it landed, so Sunrise should at least be more lively than that.

But then you remember what Catching Fire managed back in 2013. $158 million on opening weekend — that’s the high-water mark for Katniss and co., and the sort of number studios write home about. So, even with all the fan events and barrels of viral marketing, Sunrise isn’t really in the same league there.

What's Behind the Buzz

This new film adapts Suzanne Collins’ novel (they do love to be faithful when the source material’s got a rabid fanbase), zooming in on a youthful Haymitch Abernathy as he gets thrust into the 50th Hunger Games. If you need your timeline in order, that’s set 24 years before Katniss volunteers and all hell breaks loose in District 12. Francis Lawrence is back to direct, which, for those keeping score, matches the main line-up from the series’ heyday. So, they’re hoping for a bit of continuity magic, no doubt.

• Joseph Zada plays young Haymitch, leading a cast that includes Mckenna Grace, Jesse Plemons, Maya Hawke, Kieran Culkin, Ralph Fiennes, Glenn Close, and Elle Fanning.
• The first trailer chalked up a head-turning 109 million views within its first 24 hours — a number even most Marvel films would raise an eyebrow at.
• Fan events are being rolled out in London and Los Angeles. Yes, the fandom swirl is officially underway.
• There’s chatter about Jennifer Lawrence and Josh Hutcherson popping up for quick cameos as Katniss Everdeen and Peeta Mellark. Lawrence herself has confirmed she’s in, calling her reunion with Hutcherson and Woody Harrelson rather emotional.

All the right ingredients, then, for fans to get properly excited — and for Lionsgate to hope for a box office feast. But if they want to catch up to that Catching Fire opening weekend, they’ll need a windfall bigger than anyone’s expecting.

The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping rolls into cinemas 20 November 2026.