New Box Office Forecasts Spell Trouble for Nate Bargatze’s The Breadwinner

If you had hopes for Nate Bargatze knocking it out of the park with his new family comedy 'The Breadwinner', you might want to dial back expectations. The film is rolling into UK cinemas today, 29 May, but things aren’t exactly looking rosy on the box office front. Here’s where we’re standing:

What’s the Story?

‘The Breadwinner’ puts Bargatze front and centre as Nate Wilcox, a dad suddenly forced into stay-at-home parenthood after his wife (played by Mandy Moore) strikes gold with a pitch on ‘Shark Tank’. It’s the sort of cheerful reversal-of-roles setup you’d expect from a family flick, with the twist being it’s co-written by Bargatze himself and directed by Eric Appel. TriStar Pictures and Wonder Project are behind it. It was initially set for March, but ended up getting bumped to the end of May – not exactly ideal, with summer blockbuster season about to explode.

Box Office Forecast: Definitely Not Smashing

Here’s where things get dicey. Predictions have been falling faster than a dodgy soufflé. Recent numbers from BoxOfficeTheory on 27 May peg the opening weekend in the US at just $10 million – or, if you want the full range, they now say $7 to $14 million from 29-31 May. This is a major drop from earlier forecasts, which had it as high as $18 million (the 22 May projection was $16–23 million, for those scoring at home). Over at BoxOffice Pro, the outlook’s even gloomier: $6–$9 million now, originally tipped at $8–$12 million earlier in May.

Why the sharp downturn? Several reasons:

• Pre-sale tickets aren’t selling as well as expected, despite lots of online hype and viral trailer-watching from Bargatze’s stand-up fanbase.
• The marketing swung hard at social media but that energy doesn’t seem to have translated into real ticket sales.
• They threw in cheaper ‘Nate Rate’ tickets late in the game, which, while friendly to your wallet, means less cash at the end of the run.

There’s always the chance it’ll catch on more in middle America, where box office tracking is a bit patchier and the family crowd could turn out last minute. If this happens, expect most of the business to come from those ‘walk-up’ sales, mums and dads on a rainy Saturday just looking for something that isn’t ‘Star Wars’ or ‘Toy Story’.

Tough Competition (and There’s Plenty of It)

The film’s also battling a huge pack of rivals. It’s dropping on the same day as Brendan Fraser’s WWII drama ‘Pressure’ and the horror flick ‘Backrooms’ from A24, which is apparently enjoying some surprise buzz. Next week you’ve got even more coming: ‘Masters of the Universe’, ‘Scary Movie 6’ (yes, really), and the bright-lights weirdness of ‘The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act’ all arrive. Good luck standing out with that lot crowding the schedule.

What Do Critics Think?

Reviews are a real mixed bag. Rotten Tomatoes currently has 'The Breadwinner' at a measly 25% critics score from 20 reviews, but audiences are apparently way happier, giving it an 85%. Jonathan Sim from ComingSoon called it a 6 out of 10. There’s a common thread in reviews saying that Bargatze fans – the ones who love his ‘clean’ comedy – will probably get a kick out of it. Others are pointing out it’s suspiciously close to the old 1983 Michael Keaton flick ‘Mr. Mom’. Make of that what you will.

How Much Does It Need to Make?

Here’s a bit of good news: this wasn’t an insanely pricey film. Deadline reports Sony’s put just $25 million into it (before all the promo spends, that is). Hollywood maths says you generally need to make two and a half times your budget to turn a profit, so ‘The Breadwinner’ needs to hit the $62 million mark to move out of the red. Slow starts are hardly a death sentence, but the climb’s suddenly a lot steeper.

'The social media-focused approach may have been too aggressive' for this crowd, says BoxOfficeTheory.