Can Anyone Knock Super Mario Galaxy From No. 1? Weekend Box Office Showdown

Look, the Easter box office is apparently now Mario's personal turf. Last year, the very first Super Mario movie absolutely stomped all over the competition, and here we are, twelve months later, and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is at it again. It's chasing some wild numbers—almost matching that 2023 monster debut—but let's be honest, the only real suspense is how much it will dip in its second outing.

Mario Can't Lose (But the Real Question: By How Much Will It Drop?)

The first Mario flick did something pretty rare; after its giant opening, it only dropped 36% in week two. That just doesn't happen unless the movie is practically printing money. This time, though, the talk is a little less breathless. The reviews are more 'meh' than 'must-see', word of mouth is good but not glowing, and the movie scored an A-minus on CinemaScore—solid, but not legendary. So, the expectation is that Super Mario Galaxy drops about 50% in its second weekend. Even then, that's a projected $70 million for weekend two, which is still massive and makes sure the Nintendo sequel factory will be running overtime for years.

How's Everyone Else Doing?

So what's happening with the competition? Here's a breakdown of the rest of the pack:

• Project Hail Mary (Amazon/MGM): Should bring in roughly $18 million over the weekend, slowly inching toward a potential $300+ million total. Nobody is worried about its momentum.
• You, Me & Tuscany (Rom-com alert!): This one could be the dark horse. With Halle Bailey (from The Little Mermaid) and Regé-Jean Page (yes, the Bridgerton guy) out front, the buzz is strong. Expect at least $10 million—maybe more if date-night crowds show up.
• The Drama (A24): Big names (Zendaya and Robert Pattinson), weird twist, but it's not sticking the landing. Word is, it's going to tumble about 60% for around $6 million.
• Faces of Death (IFC/Shudder): Yup, they're remaking that infamous '70s shocker. Early numbers say it’ll barely sneak into the top five, likely around $4 million, which is decent for a horror cult reboot.

By the Numbers

Want it all at a glance? Here’s the weekend prediction rundown:
Super Mario Galaxy Movie: $70 million
Project Hail Mary: $18 million
You, Me & Tuscany: $10 million
The Drama: $6 million
Faces of Death: $4 million

The Bottom Line

So, unless you’re allergic to Italian plumbers or just want to be original for Easter, Mario’s going to be the safe bet. But if you’re more into sci-fi, messy drama, or dating with a side of sweeping Tuscan vistas, there’s something else with your name on it. Just don’t expect any of them to come close to Mario’s box office throne... at least, not this week.

'No one has any doubt over whether or not it’s going to top the box office again in week two. Rather, the question is how much it’s going to drop.'

Personally? I'm just curious to see if You, Me & Tuscany actually surprises us or if this is just another week of Mushroom Kingdom domination. Either way, there's popcorn money to be made.