2027 Oscars: The Bold, Way-Too-Early Predictions Everyone Will Debate

Alright, I know how this looks—we’re barely into 2026 and the movie world is already buzzing about the 2027 Oscars. The show won’t even air until March 14, 2027 (ABC and Hulu, if you care about setting your reminders way in advance). But that never stops anyone from speculating wildly, and as usual, the odds makers are way ahead of themselves. If you want a peek at what the ultra-nerds on prediction markets are betting on for the 99th Academy Awards—yes, someone is already taking bets—buckle in, because some of these are both bold and, frankly, pretty funny given how much can go off the rails in another year.

Who’s Getting Hyped After One Teaser Trailer?

These odds come courtesy of the prediction market Kalshi, and they’re from April 20—so expect things to change a million times as movies flop, disappear, or get punted to 2028. Also, just a heads up: Not every Oscar category is covered. If you’re looking for early betting on Best Costume Design, Documentary Short, Production Design, and a few others—no dice.

Early Favorites: Best Picture and the Rest of the Big Guns

Let’s break it down. I’ve pulled together the major categories and left out anything below a 20% shot, because even for this kind of crystal-ball gazing, we have to draw the line somewhere.

• Best Picture:
  The top pick? The Odyssey sitting at 89%. That’s, uh, pretty confident for a movie that most people haven’t seen a frame from. Dune: Part Three (79%) and Project Hail Mary (71%) round out what you’d expect: big, flashy projects from people with a lot of Oscars (and money) behind them. There are new names and wildcards too, from Digger (65%) and Wild Horse Nine (60%) to the new Narnia adaptation (The Magician's Nephew, 32%) and a movie called All of a Sudden (30%)—no, I haven’t heard of all of these either.
• Best Director:
  Betting is all over Christopher Nolan (The Odyssey - 82%). Martin McDonagh is next up (for Wild Horse Nine - 56%), with the rest trailing (Fincher, Pawlikowski, even Spielberg’s Disclosure Day). Phil Lord and Christopher Miller (team Project Hail Mary) are both listed separately and together. Not confusing at all, right?
• Best Actor:
  John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine) leads at 72%, with Matt Damon (The Odyssey) at 55%, Tom Cruise (yep) in Digger at 52%, and Sebastian Stan (Fjord) at 51%. Ryan Gosling for Project Hail Mary is an even 50%. The love for A-listers never dies.
• Best Actress:
  Sandra Hüller is a favorite for Rose (54%), followed by Renate Reinsve (Fjord - 51%) and Mikey Madison (The Social Reckoning, 32%). Cynthia Erivo, Julianne Moore, Scarlett Johansson, Joan Collins, Lily Gladstone, Natalie Portman, and Penélope Cruz all float around the 20%+ mark for various highbrow projects.
• Best Supporting Actor:
  John Goodman (Digger - 55%) and Colman Domingo (Michael - 52%) are the front-runners. Jeremy Strong gets love for The Social Reckoning (also popping up elsewhere), and there’s a lot of familiar faces: Steve Buscemi, Paul Giamatti, Tom Holland, Jesse Plemons, Channing Tatum, and Charles Melton all have a 20%+ bite.
• Best Supporting Actress:
  Predictably, Hüller’s back (for Digger this time, 48%), then Anne Hathaway for Verity (42%). Mariana di Girolamo, Betty Gilpin, Danielle Deadwyler, Isabella Rossellini, and Margaret Qualley each appear with respectable odds.
• Best Screenplay:
  Original: Digger (Iñárritu and team) leads at 63%, Wild Horse Nine (61%) on its heels.
  Adapted: Project Hail Mary is in front (69%), then The Odyssey (60%), with Dune: Part Three (43%) lurking.
• Big Genres and Tech Categories:
  Animated Feature: Hoppers is leading the cartoon pack at 85%, ahead of Wildwood and (surprisingly?) Toy Story 5.
  Visual Effects: If you said Dune: Part Three was the visual effects favorite (86%), give yourself a gold star. Project Hail Mary (76%) and Godzilla Minus Zero (71%) trail.
• International Film:
  1949 / Fatherland is the safest bet here (74%), over All of a Sudden and a Norwegian entry (Fjord).
• Music and Cinematography:
  Score: The Odyssey and Ludwig Göransson lead (70%), with Dune 3 and Zimmer not far behind.
  Cinematography: Basically, if you want to bet on The Odyssey or Cliff Booth, you’re not alone. Hoyte van Hoytema for The Odyssey hit an eyebrow-raising 90%.

Just How Early Are These Predictions?

This early-early round of predictions depends on the kind of things that always juice Oscar speculation: directors the Academy loves, flashy trailers, movies getting buzz at Cannes (hello Palme d'Or), and 'hey, didn’t they win before?' vibes. And a lot of these films could easily miss 2026 entirely, pushing them out of the running for this Oscar cycle — meaning some of that big money on your favorite just goes 'poof'.

'Given how early these predictions are, these are very much subject to change, but the percentages below do provide a snapshot on which films, actors, and directors that people already have theirs sights on.'

Is This All Ridiculous? (Yes, But It’s Fun)

Nobody sane is making real plans yet based on these odds, and if history is any indication, at least one 'sure thing' will crash and burn and something nobody’s heard of will catch fire at the last minute. Of course, that’s the fun part of Oscar predictions—it’s a spectator sport for movie fans who like to be right, or at least loudly wrong, a full year in advance.