Why Lionsgate’s Michael Could Stumble at the Box Office

Alright, so let’s talk about Lionsgate’s big Michael Jackson biopic, ‘Michael.’ This thing has been hyped up for months, fueled by a viral teaser and a whole lot of wishful thinking. The studio is basically betting the house on Michael moonwalking past previous musical biopics at the box office. But some recent numbers are starting to throw a wet blanket on those superstar expectations.

From Viral Teaser to Cooling Forecasts

Here’s where this gets interesting — and a little weird, timing-wise. The very first teaser trailer for ‘Michael’ dropped back in November 2025 and, not surprisingly, blew up the internet with over 30 million views in a matter of hours. For a minute, it looked like Lionsgate had another ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ on their hands (that one pulled in $900 million globally, if you forgot).

But that hype train? It’s started losing steam. Box office trackers have quietly trimmed their projections, and it’s worth looking at just how much:

• Initial projection (late March): $80–$90 million for opening weekend in the US.
• Latest forecast (BoxOffice Pro): Only $60–$75 million. That’s kind of a steep drop.
• BoxOfficeTheory’s take: They’ve been calling it lower from the start, sticking with their $52–$65 million range for its US launch.

Why the Drop?

Here’s what’s slowing things down for ‘Michael’:

Presales are decent, but not enough to beat out other music-driven releases like ‘Wicked’ or new competition like ‘The Devil Wears Prada 2,’ which annoyingly opens just a week after ‘Michael’ hits theaters on April 24, 2026. (To make it more frustrating, ‘Michael’ was delayed a few times hoping for a better window... and then a major sequel gets dropped back-to-back. Hollywood timing never fails to amuse.)

High Stakes, Higher Hopes

Here’s the thing: ‘Michael’ wasn’t cheap to make. Lionsgate reportedly shelled out $155 million for production, plus another $10–$15 million to redo the third act after some legal headaches. Total price tag? Let’s round it to a cool $170 million.

So how much does it need to make to even start turning a profit? Rule of thumb says about 2.5 times your budget. That sets the magic break-even number at around $400 million. But Lionsgate isn’t just looking for a decent run—they’re gunning for a global box office of $700 million, minimum. Not exactly a chill goal.

'If the film doesn’t cross $700 million globally, there’s no sequel,' according to a Variety breakdown. So yeah, this is high-risk, high-reward movie-making.

The logic goes like this: If ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ made $910 million back in pre-pandemic 2018, surely Michael Jackson, who’s maybe the only pop star who could actually out-icon Freddie Mercury, should pull even bigger numbers now, right?

Well, maybe. But it’s worth noting that ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ only opened with $51 million domestically — it was overseas audiences that really pushed it over the finish line ($694 million internationally). Lionsgate is counting on that same global fandom, but honestly, the US box office looks like a tougher hill to climb.

The Competition Is Brutal

‘Michael’ is going up against some heavy hitters—and even the recent 2025 tentpoles have had a tough time cracking $700 million. For comparison:

• ‘Superman’ (2025): $618 million
• ‘F1: The Movie’ (2025): $634 million (with all the IMAX bells and whistles)
• ‘The Fantastic Four: First Steps’ (2025): $521 million

That’s two established superhero franchises and a racing film built for huge international turnout, none of which passed $700 million. And yet Lionsgate expects an original biopic to hit that mark? That’s some intense optimism.

Can Michael Still Surprise?

There is a shot that walk-up ticket sales and a last-minute surge in buzz could boost those numbers, especially if casual audiences suddenly get swept up in MJ nostalgia. But the studio’s looking at a likely scenario where ‘Michael’ does okay in the States and really has to rely on international audiences to save the day.

One more wrinkle: If this film doesn’t pull in $700 million (let alone $400 million just to break even), that rumored sequel covering the later, messier years of Jackson’s life? Don’t hold your breath.

Long story short—Lionsgate’s taking a pretty wild gamble here. The film drops April 24, and honestly, I’m just as curious as they are to see if audiences are ready to line up for another big-ticket music biopic. If you’re betting on a moonwalk to $700 million, you’re braver than I am.