Two Stars Are Already Running Away With the 2027 Best Actor Oscar Race

I know, it feels like we just wrapped up the last Oscars, but there's already buzz building for the 2027 show—and if you're a betting type, two very familiar faces are already pulling way ahead in the Best Lead Actor race. It's a head-to-head between blockbusters and late-career icons, and the whole thing has the potential to finally put an end to two decades of Oscar 'snubs'.

Who Are the Early Favorites?

According to prediction markets (specifically Kalshi, if you like your Oscar gossip data-driven), Tom Cruise and John Malkovich are essentially neck and neck in the race for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, scheduled for March 14, 2027. If either guy wins, it'd be their first acting Oscar—pretty wild considering how long both have been around.

Here are the current frontrunners, based on April 17 numbers from Kalshi:

• Tom Cruise (Digger): 28%
• John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine): 26%
• Josh O'Connor (Jack of Spades): 9%
• Sebastian Stan (Fjord): 8%

And then there's a whole slew of heavy-hitters who, for some reason, haven't gotten any love in the betting so far: Brad Pitt (The Adventures of Cliff Booth), Adam Driver (Paper Tiger), Andrew Scott (Pressure), Charles Melton (Saturn Return), Channing Tatum (Josephine), and Keanu Reeves (The Entertainment System Is Down). Kind of surprising, honestly, though it doesn't mean they're out of contention.

How Did We Get Here?

The Cruise-vs-Malkovich push isn't just a blip. Since Kalshi opened betting on this category back in March, these two have traded the #1 spot a few times. Cruise started ahead, Malkovich overtook him for a bit in April, and at the moment it's a virtual tie.

Another bet that tries to predict who will actually get nominated has Cruise (60%) and Malkovich (61%) still well ahead, but there are others still in the mix with decent odds: Matt Damon (The Odyssey, 54%), Timothée Chalamet (Dune: Part Three, 41%), Jeremy Strong (The Social Reckoning, 40%), Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary, 37%), and Jaafar Jackson (Michael, 29%).

And, for what it's worth, The Odyssey is already tipped by the prediction market to snag Best Picture—which is always a nice boost for any actor hoping to grab the main prize.

Why Is Cruise Finally in Oscar Territory?

Let me put it this way—if you want to see Tom Cruise pack a gut, go full-gray, and play an oil baron in an environmental dark comedy, Digger is about to be your thing. Cruise plays Digger Rockwell, a fossil-fuel tycoon who tries to prove he can fix the eco-disaster caused by his own company. This is exactly the kind of "wow, is that really him?" transformation that Academy voters eat up.

Even more importantly, Digger is directed by Alejandro González Iñárritu—the guy behind Birdman and The Revenant (both Oscar favorites). Iñárritu doesn't always hit box office gold (Bardo was kind of a miss), but his movies are a magnet for acting awards, and Warner Bros. is throwing $125 million at this one to make sure it gets noticed.

To sum it up: Cruise has two previous Best Actor nominations (Born on the Fourth of July and Jerry Maguire), but he'll show up at next year's Oscars without a single acting win. He did get an Honorary Oscar last year, and you can bet that the 'career recognition' sentiment is hotter than ever.

"He has been snubbed one too many times. Voters might just decide it's finally Tom's turn."

Malkovich: Also Overdue?

John Malkovich is pretty much the definition of 'veteran character actor'—over 100 movies, two Supporting Actor nominations (Places in the Heart, In the Line of Fire), but never a win. Now, at 72, he's starring in Martin McDonagh's new movie, Wild Horse Nine.

If you want Oscar bait, this movie is practically the textbook: Malkovich plays a CIA officer, joined by Sam Rockwell's protégé, heading to Easter Island just before Chile's 1973 military coup. Picture spy drama, banter, and a cast stacked with Steve Buscemi, Parker Posey, and Tom Waits. Plus, McDonagh wrote and directed—he's the guy behind Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Banshees of Inisherin, both well-loved by awards voters.

Malkovich's performance already has people saying this could be one of his last chances for the big trophy—which, honestly, can sometimes make all the difference with voters.

Anything Could Change

Both Digger (October 2) and Wild Horse Nine (November 6) are set to drop later this year, so it’s way too early to engrave anybody's name on the Oscar. And if last year taught us anything—remember how Michael B. Jordan swooped in last minute?—one surprise role can flip the whole race.

For now, though, it looks like the next Best Lead Actor Oscar is shaping up to be a long-overdue moment for one of Hollywood's most persistent legends. Place your bets, or at least set your reminders for awards season trailer drops.