The Odyssey sinks Moana at the box office — break-even looks impossible

If you thought Disney’s never-ending churn of live-action remakes was a fairly sure thing, guess again. The studio’s latest attempt, a live-action version of Moana, is properly tanking at the box office – and the numbers are pretty grim, even by recent Disney standards.

Moana’s Boat Isn’t Just Leaking – It’s Sinking

Let’s talk numbers, because this isn’t a small stumble. Moana opened with $43 million in the US, and $95 million worldwide. If you’re thinking, 'That’s not awful for an opening,' I’m afraid the economics are about as sunny as a British seaside in February. The film itself cost a whopping $250 million to make, then Disney poured in another $120 million on marketing. After two weekends, all those efforts have netted only $178.4 million globally, according to Box Office Mojo.

Why so dire? Well, cinemas keep about half of every ticket sold, so for this film to simply break even, it needs to hit around $600 million worldwide. At this rate, that target is well over the horizon.

What Went Wrong?

• Lack of Hype: Moana didn’t land as a proper event – more like reheated leftovers. Jeff Bock, an analyst over at Exhibitor Relations, put it bluntly: 'Disney’s strategy is dependent on whether audiences see the remake as an event or a duplicate. This was the latter. People wanted Moana 3, not a remake of the original.' Pretty hard to argue with that.
• Timing Issues: David A. Gross, who runs FranchiseRe, reckons Disney misjudged just how long it actually takes for an animated film to become a classic. His take: 'It takes time to be a classic, not just success.' The original Moana is barely a decade old, and just last year its animated sequel was in cinemas. That’s barely enough time for nostalgia to do its job.
• Competition: If there was a worse week to debut, I’d be shocked. Toy Story 5, another Minions film, Monsters, and Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey have all been devouring audiences, with Nolan’s epic even locking up every premium large-format cinema as soon as it arrived.
• Budget Bloat: Dwayne Johnson banked almost $30 million for producing and starring – so fair play to him – while the 2023 strikes delayed things further and ratcheted up costs.
• Box Office Drop-Off: The second weekend saw takings slump a brutal 56% to just $19 million in the US, running on over 4,200 screens. As Rentrak’s Paul Dergarabedian said, if you want a film to do well long-term, you absolutely do not want anything close to a 60-70% second-weekend drop. Moana delivered exactly that – not ideal.

Where Now for Disney Remakes?

If Disney wanted a reminder that just slapping some live-action on an old(ish) winner isn’t always going to pay, they’ve certainly got it with Moana. For now, hundreds of millions off the break-even mark, facing more crowd-pleasers in every direction, and no sign of an upswing.