The 2027 Best Picture Race Is Already Over: Here’s the Film to Beat

Apparently, we can’t even get through the leftover Oscars memes before people start placing bets on the next one. The 2026 Academy Awards just wrapped up in March, but the prediction markets are already lighting up about which movie is going to waltz away with the Best Picture trophy at the 2027 ceremony. As of right now, there’s a clear frontrunner—and honestly, it’s not even close.

Here Comes Nolan (Again)

If you had 'Christopher Nolan’s ancient Greek epic' on your Oscar pool bingo card—congrats, you’re smarter than me. Nolan’s big new project, The Odyssey, is apparently the only film anyone thinks has a real shot next year. I looked at the Kalshi prediction market (yes, people are betting money this far out), and The Odyssey isn’t just ahead; it’s lapping the field.

• The Odyssey: 31%
• Project Hail Mary: 12%
• Wild Horse Nine: 10%
• Digger: 8%
• Dune: Part Three: 7%
• Disclosure Day: 5%
• The Social Reckoning: 5%
• 1949 / Fatherland: 5%
• Fjord: 4%
• Artificial: 3%
• Michael: 3%
• The Adventures of Cliff Booth: 2%

Nobody else even comes close. To put it in perspective: The Odyssey is sitting at 31%, and the next best ('Project Hail Mary,' starring Ryan Gosling) is way back at 12%. Some movies in the betting pool are hovering around 1% (or even less)—stuff like 'Behemoth,' 'Cry to Heaven,' 'Josephine,' that new ‘Narnia’ prequel, and, weirdly, ‘Avenger’s Doomsday.’ So yes, this year’s prediction market gets a little sci-fi, a little superhero, but so far Nolan is the only one with any real Oscar buzz.

Here’s an even wilder stat: the market opened March 20, and The Odyssey started at 17%. It’s now nearly doubled that lead—and shows no sign of slowing down.

And if you’re wondering about nominations (not just winning), The Odyssey is also leading by a jaw-dropping 89% on another Kalshi market, where voters bet on what will even get nominated for Best Picture. Some other oddball titles show up in that pool—'Parallel Tales,' 'The Drama,' 'Being Heumann,' 'Saturn Return'—but, realistically, it’s all The Odyssey all the time.

All About Nolan’s New Epic

Let’s break down why everyone’s so sure this will be an Oscar magnet. First off, Nolan is adapting Homer’s ‘The Odyssey’—we’re talking gods, monsters, epic quests, and plenty of room for ‘serious’ filmmaking (i.e., catnip for the Academy). The cast is a who's-who of current Hollywood A-listers:

- Matt Damon is Odysseus himself.
- Anne Hathaway plays Penelope.
- Tom Holland as Telemachus.
- Zendaya as Athena.
- Charlize Theron is Circe, the witch (expect some “Best Supporting” talk here).
- Robert Pattinson as suitor Antinous.
- And let’s not forget Jon Bernthal, Lupita Nyong'o, and John Leguizamo in the ensemble.

In other words, the cast list alone probably cost more than most indie films.

Biggest Swing Ever?

Here’s the 'gulp' moment: The Hollywood Reporter says the budget is around $250 million. Universal Pictures and Nolan’s production company Syncopy need this film to rake in about $625 million just to break even. That’s a box office Everest, even for summer tentpole season. But if any director outside of James Cameron has the greenlight power to back a big-budget Greek epic, it's Nolan—especially after his track record with Oscar voters and ticket sales alike.

What Could Go Wrong?

Of course, it’s way too early to start engraving the Oscar statuette. The prediction markets love front-runners until they don’t—remember how everyone assumed ‘Babylon’ was a lock until it flopped? A lot can change if The Odyssey gets bad buzz, a surprise bomb, or another contender steals the spotlight later in the year.

'The Odyssey is the clear favorite for Best Picture right now, but that could all flip if it tanks or something else gets hot down the stretch.'

So, if you like early speculation or just want to impress your film club friends, there you go: as of now, it looks like 2027’s Best Picture is Nolan’s to lose. Just don’t bet your Oscars party snack budget on it yet.