Oscars 2027 Best Picture Odds Are Overlooking the Real Contenders

Yes, it's still way too early to start stockpiling snacks for an Oscars watch party in 2027, but that hasn't stopped gamblers and movie nerds from digging into the odds for Best Picture. We’re talking years out—nobody's even seen half these movies yet, let alone heard the actual nominees. But that just makes the speculation more fun (and sometimes, more ridiculous).

So, if you want to see what the smart money is saying—and which films have already made some folks nervous enough to put cash down—here’s where things stand thanks to a Kalshi betting spread as of late March 2024.

Early Best Picture Favorites (According to the Odds)

Five movies already have odds above 50% to snag a Best Picture nomination in 2027. A lot more are over 25%. Translation: If you went purely by this list, you’d fill out most of your Oscar ballot. But of course, with several months (and probably some epic flops and surprise hits) between now and the Academy’s shortlist, these numbers will swing wildly.

• The Odyssey – 88%
• Dune: Part Three – 76%
• Digger – 67%
• Wild Horse Nine – 65%
• Project Hail Mary – 64%
• Disclosure Day – 44%
• Fjord – 39%
• Josephine – 39%
• The Adventures of Cliff Booth – 38%
• Saturn Return – 38%
• The Social Reckoning – 37%
• Parallel Tales – 31%
• All of a Sudden – 30%
• Behemoth – 29%
• Michael – 29%
• Cry to Heaven – 30%
• Narnia: The Magician's Nephew – 27%
• Werwulf – 27%
• Artifical – 20%
• Ink – 19%
• Sense and Sensibility – 19%
• I Love Boosters – 18%
• The Entertainment System Is Down – 16%
• The Death of Robin Hood – 11%
• The Drama – 10%
• Avengers: Doomsday – 6%

The Heavyweights in the Race

Nobody should be shocked that 'The Odyssey' and 'Dune: Part Three' are leading the pack. 'The Odyssey' hits theaters July 17 and is directed by Christopher Nolan, who’s basically been on Oscar speed-dial for the past decade. With a $250M budget and a cast that includes Matt Damon, Tom Holland, Charlize Theron, and Zendaya, you’d be forgiven for thinking this is designed in a lab to win trophies. If you’re getting 'Gladiator' flashbacks, you’re not alone.

Over in Arrakis, Denis Villeneuve is wrapping up his 'Dune' trilogy. 'Dune: Part Two' didn’t rack up as many nominations as the first installment, but if awards voters have a soft spot for sweeping conclusions, 'Part Three' could mop up.

The rest of the top five is nothing to sniff at. 'Project Hail Mary' from Amazon MGM Studios is getting pre-release buzz for its technical wizardry, and Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s 'Digger' has more people talking, since Tom Cruise is apparently stepping out of his action-hero comfort zone. (That alone might be enough to finally land him a Best Actor statuette—maybe.)

Martin McDonagh’s 'Wild Horse Nine' is also up there, which feels right considering how much the Academy has loved his past films.

Spielberg, Sequels, and a Couple of Oddities

Right behind those is 'Disclosure Day', which finds Steven Spielberg back on his favorite territory (yep, aliens) with Emily Blunt, Josh O'Connor, Colin Firth, and Colman Domingo, plus a score by John Williams. That's Oscar-campaign catnip. The list also features a weird mix of sequels, including 'The Social Reckoning'—meant as a sort-of follow-up to 'The Social Network'—and 'The Adventures of Cliff Booth', which comes with its own quirky trivia: it's directed by David Fincher but Quentin Tarantino, who directed the original 'Once Upon a Time in Hollywood', is a writer on this one. If that doesn't count as Hollywood eating itself, I don't know what does.

Big Snubs (and Some Surprises)

For all the movies that did make the betting cut, there are a few notable absences that could still shake up the race. Example: 'Tony'—the Anthony Bourdain biopic starring Dominic Sessa and Antonio Banderas—sounds like the kind of movie that’s tailor-made for awards season. But it’s not on this spread.

Another film getting ignored by oddsmakers (but not critics)? 'Being Heumann', about disability activist Judith Heumann. Apple Studios has this one and critics are already talking it up, though 2026 might be an overcrowded year for biopics: you've also got 'Michael' (as in Michael Jackson), 'Artificial' (about OpenAI's Sam Altman), and 'Ink' with Guy Pearce playing Rupert Murdoch. Nothing like a little real-life drama to fire up Oscar voters, apparently.

Want more overlooked options? 'Clarissa'—a new take on 'Mrs Dalloway', directed by the Esiri brothers—has been acquired by Neon (the distributor with a recent knack for picking movies that end up in awards conversations), but it’s missing from the betting list. Neon does have some horses in the race this year with 'Fjord', 'All of a Sudden', and 'Parallel Tales', but other projects like Chloe Domont's 'A Place in Hell' and Werner Herzog's 'Bucking Fastard' are AWOL here.

Two more films that could surprise: 'The Dog Stars', Ridley Scott’s postapocalyptic drama featuring Jacob Elordi, Josh Brolin, and Margaret Qualley; and 'Paper Tiger', a crime drama with Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson, and Miles Teller. Either movie could score big with the acting categories and muscle their way into the Best Picture race just because of the strength of those performances.

Expect the Unexpected

Bottom line: Don’t take any of these predictions to the bank. Oscar races never run smooth, and there’s guaranteed to be at least a couple of out-of-nowhere hits—or maybe a dramatic flop or two. The only thing you can really count on is that these odds will shift a dozen more times before January 2027 rolls around, at which point we'll all pretend we saw it coming.

'Movie buffs will keep reading the tea leaves for next year’s Oscars, but most of these bets will probably age like unrefrigerated milk.'