Oscars 2026: F1’s Unexpected Surge Shakes Up Best Picture Race

With the Academy Awards looming, Warner Bros. finds itself in a rather enviable position. Two of its most prominent releases—Ryan Coogler’s Sinners and Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another—are widely tipped to secure nominations for Best Picture. Yet, in a twist that few had on their bingo cards, another contender from the same stable is making waves among the voting body, and not the one most would have wagered on.

Blockbuster F1 Gains Unexpected Momentum

While the likes of Sinners and One Battle After Another have been the talk of the town for months, it’s Joseph Kosinski’s F1—a summer release starring Brad Pitt—that’s quietly gathering support. According to some industry chatter, the film has struck a chord with older Academy members, who have described it as

“good old-school entertainment”

. Despite lacking the prestige sheen of its rivals, F1’s broad appeal and comfort factor could see it sneak into the Best Picture shortlist, much to the surprise of pundits and punters alike.

Given the sheer volume of acclaimed films released in 2025, the possibility of F1 muscling in on the final nominations has set tongues wagging. Should it happen, the resulting shake-up could leave some of the more traditional favourites out in the cold when the shortlist is revealed next week.

How the Main Contenders Stack Up

For those keeping score, here’s how the leading trio currently stand in the eyes of critics and audiences:

F1 (dir. Joseph Kosinski): IMDb 7.7, Tomatometer 82%, Popcornmeter 97%
Sinners (dir. Ryan Coogler): IMDb 7.5, Tomatometer 97%, Popcornmeter 96%
One Battle After Another (dir. Paul Thomas Anderson): IMDb 7.8, Tomatometer 94%, Popcornmeter 85%

It’s a close-run thing, with each film boasting its own strengths—be it critical acclaim, audience enthusiasm, or sheer box office clout. The field is as competitive as it’s been in years, and the final cut is anyone’s guess.

Key Dates and the Nomination Reveal

The 98th edition of the Oscars is shaping up to be a proper contest, with anticipation building as the nomination window has now closed. The official list will be made public on 22 January, with Daniel Brooks—previously recognised for her role in The Color Purple—and Lewis Pullman set to announce the nominees live from the Samuel Goldwyn Theater at half past five in the morning Pacific Time. The event will be broadcast on television and streamed online for those keen to catch the news as it breaks.

Viewers can expect the usual mix of excitement and disappointment as the names are read out, with social media sure to light up in the aftermath. The ceremony itself promises to be a highlight of the awards calendar, with speculation already rife about which films will take home the top honours.

Release Timing: A Double-Edged Sword for Sinners

Despite being widely regarded as a shoo-in for multiple nominations, Sinners faces a potential stumbling block due to its release date. Films that debut closer to awards season—typically between October and December—tend to linger in the minds of voters, a phenomenon often referred to as recency bias. By contrast, those released earlier in the year can find themselves at a disadvantage, no matter how strong the reviews.

This year, One Battle After Another and A24’s Marty Supreme are both fresh in the cultural conversation, which could work in their favour. It’s a situation that’s not entirely fair to Coogler’s film, though there’s hope that a recent push from Christopher Nolan, who hosted a special screening as part of the campaign, might help level the playing field.

For those eager to catch up, F1 is available to stream on Apple TV, while Sinners and One Battle After Another can be found on HBO Max. As the countdown to the nominations continues, speculation is rife—so, whose name will be in the envelope?