Move Over, Franchises: Original Movies Are Dominating the Box Office

If you’ve glanced at movie box office headlines lately, you’ve probably noticed a bit of a shift. Suddenly, there’s a real buzz around original movies actually doing well—not just holding their own, but stomping all over the low-bar expectations people usually set for non-franchise films. Project Hail Mary is the latest headline-grabber, and for good reason: this thing is blowing past predictions and holding like crazy in its second week (we’re talking a drop in the 35–40% range, while most big releases nosedive 50–60% or worse after weekend one).

Remember the Old Days, Before Sequel Overload?

Let’s take a quick rewind. If you were going to movies in the 1990s, you saw a far different box office landscape. Sequels were around, sure, but they didn’t totally dominate (or feel mandatory) the way they do now. In fact, back in 1996, not a single film in the year’s box office Top 10 was a sequel. That didn’t stop some of them from spawning franchises later (eventually—sometimes decades later), but at the time, these movies felt fresh, even varied. You had action, comedies, thrillers, legal dramas—actual variety.

• Independence Day
• Twister
• Mission: Impossible
• The Rock
• The Nutty Professor
• Ransom
• The Birdcage
• A Time to Kill
• 101 Dalmatians
• The First Wives Club

(Fun fact: Only Mission: Impossible instantly became a full-on franchise. Most others took their sweet time between sequels—if they got them at all.)

How Franchises Took Over (And Why Studios Couldn’t Help Themselves)

Then the 2010s arrived, and with Marvel’s unstoppable run, studios caught franchise fever. Suddenly, every studio wanted their own universe, and it got to the point where a quick glance at the annual Top 10 grossers would show maybe one original movie—if that. For example, 2024’s Top 10 list (outside Wicked)? Practically 100% sequels.

Project Hail Mary: A Big, Risky Gamble (That Actually Landed)

Here’s where things get a little weird (in a good way). Project Hail Mary wasn’t a guaranteed hit. Amazon/MGM dumped over $200 million into an adaptation of an Andy Weir novel, hoping for another The Martian-size success—except this time, Ridley Scott isn’t involved and Matt Damon is nowhere to be found. Instead, you’ve got Ryan Gosling—who, let’s be honest, isn’t really famous for turning stuff into box office gold (The Fall Guy tanked not that long ago). And yet, it worked. It arguably worked better than anyone predicted.

Meanwhile, Some Franchises Are Definitely Looking Tired

While Project Hail Mary is zooming upward, some of Hollywood’s franchise workhorses are starting to wheeze a bit. Marvel has had a string of under-performers (The Marvels, Captain America: Brave New World, Thunderbolts—none breaking even). Sure, Deadpool & Wolverine is still massive, but overall, the MCU brand isn’t what it used to be. Same for Fast & Furious—that series is running out of gas, no matter how many times Vin Diesel jumps up and shouts about “family” on social media. Star Wars movies haven’t even been able to get off the starting line lately, and Disney is only now trying a revival with The Mandalorian & Grogu and a 2027 film, Starfighter (which, weirdly, will star Ryan Gosling).

This Doesn’t Look Like a Total Fluke

Now, you might think 'Sure, Project Hail Mary is a one-off.' But actually, originals have been quietly creeping back into the conversation this year and last. Several non-franchise titles did some serious business. Sinners (directed by Ryan Coogler) became a critical and box office favorite. Even a Minecraft movie (all right, based on a video game but not a straight sequel) cleaned up.

Why Is This Happening? Word of Mouth Matters

Here’s one reason these original movies are sticking: audiences actually like them. CinemaScore, the infamous survey handed out on opening night, shows Project Hail Mary and Sinners both scored an 'A'. That’s rare, especially for originals. Compare that to the middling B– ratings for Scream 7 and Captain America: Brave New World. When word of mouth is strong (think A– or better), people keep showing up. When it’s just 'eh', audiences do what they do best—wait for streaming.

'The studios are learning the same lesson, over and over: people show up for quality. They don’t care about the logo on the poster if the movie is actually good.'

But Don’t Break Up With Franchises Just Yet

So, are franchises dying? Not even close. Overseas, franchises still rule. Outside of F1 and that Minecraft movie, the international box office is basically all sequels, all the time. Even Sinners cracked only the Top 20 worldwide.

And don’t forget: studios aren’t going cold turkey on franchises. Later this year, we’ve got Dune Part 3 and Avengers: Doomsday squaring off for box office king. Amazon/MGM, for all their risk-taking, are apparently already pitching a Project Hail Mary sequel and trying to reboot James Bond (again).

So—A Real Turning Point, or Just a Blip?

The upcoming slate is still heavy on sequels. Huge originals are coming too (Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey will absolutely make noise). But when even the big, prestigious studio projects are mostly follow-ups, it’s still an open question whether this original-movie moment is a trend or just a lucky run.

Ultimately, what Hollywood needs (and honestly, what audiences want) is balance. There’s always going to be space for huge brands like Marvel, Bond, or whatever animated franchise is next. But when movies like Project Hail Mary, Sinners, or even Weapons break out, it’s proof studios don’t always need to chase IP—sometimes, people just want to see something new. Here’s hoping studios actually get the message this time.