Moana sails into choppy waters as box office outlook dims

Summer 2026 at the cinema really is turning out to be strange. The supposed sure things are stumbling, and nothing's going quite as the studios planned. Amazon and MGM forked out a small fortune for Masters of the Universe, only for it to flop. Universal's Minions & Monsters, which was tipped to be a cash machine, now looks a bit of an afterthought. And Disney—usually the safe bet—is having a rough time of it. Their last Star Wars outing, The Mandalorian & Grogu, somehow managed to deliver the worst box office numbers in that franchise's history. If that wasn’t bruising enough, now Disney's live-action Moana remake looks like another major misfire.

Not Exactly a Homecoming: Moana's Lukewarm Reception

It’s not often you say this about a film starring Dwayne Johnson (in theory, box office catnip), but Moana is tracking to open with just about $45 million in its first weekend in the US. Considering the film's rumoured price tag is in the region of $250 million, that's what you’d call a limp start. We’re talking about a remake of one of Disney’s most successful recent animated films, too. This studio is used to the big numbers—for context, Moana 2 was the third biggest film last year (2024).

There’s a sense now that audiences are fed up with Disney’s conveyor belt of live-action redos. Earlier this year, Snow White turned into a bit of a snowballing disappointment, and Moana is hitting similar roadblocks. Critics have been, let’s say, less than impressed. The complaints are more or less universal: flat visuals, ropey CGI, and Dwayne Johnson looking distinctly uncomfortable in what fans are calling 'the least convincing muscle suit and wig in Disney history'. Disney didn’t exactly take risks here—they stuck so close to the original film that at times it’s hard to spot new material. That apparently hasn’t lured in the fans.

What They're Saying

"The approach doesn't seem to have generated much excitement."

No one at Disney is actually saying that out loud, but you get the drift.

Not All Gloom: Horror Makes a Comeback

Over on the horror front, Evil Dead Burn is shaping up to be the unexpected winner this weekend. After a run of duds trying to cash in on the last trend—Leviticus from Neon didn’t really catch fire after the double-whammy of Obsession and Backrooms—audiences seem ready to be scared again. Evil Dead Burn is predicted to open at around $25 million, which is bang on what Evil Dead Rise managed. The film is riding a wave of solid critical buzz and positive word of mouth. The franchise isn’t finished either, with another instalment reportedly already in development.

The Rest of the Field

Other titles to keep an eye on:

• Minions & Monsters is expected to plunge by about half in its second weekend, probably pulling in roughly $18 million. That’s a sharp decline for a franchise that once printed money.
• Toy Story 5 hasn’t lit up the box office either but should stick around the $15 million mark.
• Young Washington from Angel Studios is the unpredictable one. It’s holding a strong CinemaScore and decent word of mouth, so another $12 million could happen without breaking a sweat. There’s just one snag: A24’s The Invite, which expands right across the country this weekend after lots of advance praise, may well muscle in on the same crowd.

The Numbers for the Weekend (Predicted, Not Hoped-For)

Here’s how it all shakes out based on current tracking:

Moana: $45 million
Evil Dead Burn: $25 million
Minions & Monsters: $18 million
Toy Story 5: $15 million
Young Washington: $12 million