Moana live-action is on track to be one of Disney’s biggest flops
Disney’s live-action Moana is taking on water, with fresh tracking flagging it as a potential megaflop. Starring Catherine Laga‘aia and Dwayne Johnson, the remake was eyeing $80–$105 million just weeks ago — now projections are sinking fast.
Disney has been all-in on these live-action remakes for a while now, but if you were expecting the new Moana to be another box office juggernaut, well, brace yourself. This one is looking anything but triumphant.
The Reality Check: Moana's Incoming Wipeout
The forecasts for the live-action Moana have taken a serious nosedive in the weeks leading up to its release. What was originally meant to be a safe bet—bankable IP, star power in Dwayne Johnson, big budget spectacle—now looks set to deliver one of Disney's bleakest financial results in years.
Where the Numbers Stand Now
- Projected opening weekend (US domestic): The tally now sits somewhere between $45 million and $60 million. Last month, that was getting pegged at $80 to $105 million, so we're not talking about a gentle dip—this is a full-on slide.
- Full North American run? Expectations for a $300 million total were getting tossed around a few weeks ago, but based on the spiralling outlook, that's not on the cards anymore.
- Production budget: All in, Disney reportedly sunk about $200 million into this. Unless things turn around (unlikely), that kind of spend with these ticket sales means big problems.
Word is, ticket pre-sales are stalling. The buzz just isn't there, despite what you'd assume would be a guaranteed crowd-pleaser. The box office pundits are already pointing to this as potentially Disney's biggest financial flop yet, and that's despite pouring Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson into the mix, alongside newcomer Catherine Laga‘aia.
Where Did the Optimism Come From?
The whole situation is a bit odd given the franchise's track record. The original Moana animated film (2016) pulled in over $680 million worldwide on a $150 million budget—proper hit, in other words. More impressively, Moana 2 (released 2024) cracked the billion mark worldwide, same $150 million budget. So for the live-action version to suddenly face this kind of cold shoulder from audiences is, frankly, a surprise.
Who's Behind It?
Thomas Kail is in the director's seat for this remake. You'd think that, and the general love for the property, would have been enough. But Disney seems to have hit a wall with the audience appetite for yet another live-action do-over. There's star power, sure—Dwayne Johnson as Maui, of course—but as the numbers show, that isn't driving ticket sales.
So, What Next for Moana?
Here's a bit of whiplash: while the live-action film is tracking poorly, Dwayne Johnson has confirmed Disney is still expanding the animated side of the franchise. In a recent media chat, he was pressed about another sequel and gave this little nugget:
'Yes, we have talked about "Moana 3," yes.'
He also shared that Jared Bush and Dana Ledoux Miller are writing the third animated Moana film. Disney clearly aren’t walking away from the franchise altogether—just maybe not as much in live-action form, after this rocky launch.
Moana's live-action remake hits UK cinemas this Wednesday, 10th July 2026. If these projections hold, Disney may be left wondering how a guaranteed hit managed to miss so spectacularly.