Let’s settle it: who really comes out on top in the Dance of the Dragons?

We all knew House of the Dragon wasn’t about to hand the Targaryens a happy ending. We’re heading into Season 3 with the Dance of the Dragons in full swing, the body count climbing, and the big question still left hanging: who actually comes out on top, and does it even matter when everyone’s torched the place?

‘House of the Dragon’ is expected to resolve who finally claims and holds the Iron Throne in Season 4, not Season 3.

The die-hard book readers (the Fire & Blood crowd) already know how this particular bloodbath wraps up, but for those of us sticking to the HBO version, it’s clear the ground is always shifting. Just as you get comfortable with Rhaenyra’s ascendancy, the climate gets a bit too fiery in King’s Landing and, unsurprisingly, the crown is still up for grabs going into future seasons. Don’t expect closure by the end of the current run – the showrunners are saving the ultimate “so who sits on the Iron Throne?” reveal for Season 4.

Death and Chaos on Both Sides

If you’ve been rooting for either Rhaenyra or Aegon II Targaryen, brace yourself. Both banners, Black and Green, pay their debts in blood. Rhaenyra’s grip on King’s Landing crumbles thanks to popular uprising, which sees her forced out to Dragonstone, lacking both army and Syrax. Unlike plenty of fantasy leaders who fade quietly, her fate is spectacularly grim. The show isn’t subtle about this: as teased in Game of Thrones Season 3, she meets her end in the jaws—and flames—of Aegon’s dragon, Sunfyre.

Not that Aegon II gets the fairytale win. He survives just long enough for his own faction to poison him, after he stubbornly refuses to listen to reason or retreat as Rhaenyra’s forces advance. By that point, everyone who mattered at the start of this war is dead or sidelined. The throne passes not to the victors but to their children.

Who Actually 'Wins'?

For those playing the long game, it’s Rhaenyra’s bloodline that takes the prize, in so far as anyone can with the Targaryens. Her and Daemon’s son, Aegon III, is crowned and actually keeps the job for 26 years (which, let’s face it, is a miracle by Targaryen standards). His brothers and their descendants continue the family run, connecting the dots all the way to Aerys II—the Mad King, whose barbecue style we all remember from Game of Thrones.

• Aegon III succeeds, ruling for more than a quarter-century.
• He’s followed by his younger brother, Viserys II, after Baelor I fails to produce an heir.
• The Targaryen line continues through Viserys, right down to the Mad King.

So if anyone’s counting, Rhaenyra’s line ‘wins’. The show goes out of its way to keep referencing how these events tie back to Game of Thrones—prophecies, heirs, White Walkers lurking beyond the Wall—but none of these players’ sacrifices end up meaning very much for the House as a whole.

The Unravelling of the Targaryens

Here’s the bitter twist: winning the Dance does nothing to save House Targaryen in the long run. The war all but wipes out their dragons—once the family’s ace—and weakens their grip on power for good. By the time of Robert’s Rebellion, there’s nothing left but fragments, and when Game of Thrones opens, you’re down to Viserys, Daenerys, Jon Snow and Maester Aemon (if anyone’s keeping obscure score). Only Jon’s left standing by the end, and he’s banished north of the Wall.

Even Daenerys’ mini-dragon revival doesn’t reverse the decline; you finish with one barely-surviving Targaryen and a house reduced to legend. All of it, ultimately, brought on by the same squabbling and short-term thinking that haunted every dynastic squabble in George R.R. Martin’s world. The Dance broke their dragons, their influence and, over generations, broke the family down to dust.