Jumanji 3’s New Release Date Could Steal Box Office Thunder From Avengers: Doomsday

If you thought the days of Marvel dominating the holiday box office with a new Avengers movie were a sure thing, think again. 'Avengers: Doomsday' is Marvel's latest attempt at an all-star superhero showdown, this time pitting just about every costumed character they've got against the classic supervillain Dr. Doom. But don't expect it to march uncontested to the top of the charts—the competition is about to get fierce, and not in a fun 'Barbenheimer' way.

The Box Office Brawl: Marvel vs. Dune vs. Jumanji

Let's lay out the situation. Disney (Marvel) and Warner Bros. (Dune) are both chasing the same December 18th release date, and neither seems willing to blink. This means 'Avengers: Doomsday' will be going toe-to-toe with 'Dune: Part Three,' Denis Villeneuve's long-awaited finale to his sandy, star-powered sci-fi saga. You'd think someone would have folded by now, considering both movies go after pretty much the same crowd of franchise fans, but apparently we're all signing up for the holiday equivalent of the Thunderdome.

Although some people are hopeful for another double-feature phenomenon like 'Barbie' and 'Oppenheimer,' that's probably wishful thinking. Those two worked because they were weirdly complementary: pink plastic escapism meets nuclear existential dread. Here you've got two event sequels, both epic, both deadly serious, both swinging for the fences with their fanbases. Long story short, the same folks are going to have to pick a side (or pony up for two expensive night outs).

And Then Jumanji Shows Up

Just when things couldn't get more crowded, Sony dropped another wildcard: the next 'Jumanji' sequel. That movie just pushed its release back from December 11th to December 25th. So now it'll open right after 'Doomsday' and 'Dune' square off, landing smack in the middle of the holiday break when everyone—including the kids and teens both franchises crave—is off school and hyped for something fun at the theater.

If you think 'Jumanji' isn't a real threat, consider what happened before:

• In 2017, 'Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle' opened just five days after 'The Last Jedi'—and went on to knock Star Wars off the #1 spot at the box office in only three weeks.
• The 2019 sequel, 'Jumanji: The Next Level,' debuted a week ahead of 'The Rise of Skywalker' and quietly raked in $800 million worldwide, hanging on through the entire holiday season. In comparison, 'Rise of Skywalker' earned a (relatively) underwhelming $1.077 billion, even though it was supposed to be the epic finale to the Skywalker saga.

Bottom line: 'Jumanji' has a knack for pulling in exactly the kind of broad audience Marvel usually depends on—families, kids, teens, nostalgic adults. History shows it can absolutely chip away at the holiday profits of bigger, louder franchises.

Why 'Doomsday' Is Still In Trouble (Even With X-Men and Dr. Doom)

There's no universe where 'Avengers: Doomsday' doesn't blast past a billion dollars in global box office. It's got everything: crossovers, returning heroes, new X-Men, and a villain fans have waited decades to see done right. But topping 'Avengers: Endgame's all-time gross of $2.799 billion? That's where things get dicey.

The biggest issue? IMAX. The studio behind 'Dune: Part Three' has locked down exclusive IMAX screenings across North America. That means 'Doomsday' won't get those premium format dollars boost during its opening run—which, for massive tentpoles, can account for a major chunk of revenue.

Add in the fact that 'Jumanji' could siphon off families and Marvel's uphill climb just got steeper. Even superhero fatigue isn't the biggest obstacle here—it's just the brutal timing.

Could Disney Still Make a Winning Move?

Disney does have a last-ditch play left, and honestly, it's a no-brainer: move 'Doomsday' up to December 11th. With 'Jumanji' leaving that slot open, Marvel could grab a whole week alone at the box office before the dust bowl of 'Dune' sweeps in. Plus, it comes well after whatever Greta Gerwig's Narnia movie does at Thanksgiving. That window could give 'Doomsday' enough time to rake in some hype, snag repeat viewers, and give it a fighting chance at crossing into 'Endgame' territory.

I wouldn't bet my last Infinity Stone on it, but if Marvel wants to avoid getting lost in the year-end blockbuster shuffle, this is their one shot.

'Jumanji overtaking Star Wars was unheard of... but the audience overlap is real. Doomsday is definitely in danger of déjà vu, especially without IMAX on its side.'

One thing's for sure—the 2025 holiday box office is going to be crowded, competitive, and probably a little weird.