Hoppers Stumbles at the Box Office — Here’s What Went Wrong

Alright, let's talk about Pixar's latest animated gamble, "Hoppers". If you've been following box office drama lately, you know the landscape hasn't exactly favored original ideas—sequels and nostalgic reboots are still king, whether we like it or not. So when Pixar rolled out "Hoppers" on March 6 in the US, the question hanging in the air wasn't "Is it any good?" (critics love it, fans love it, I'll get to that), but "Can Pixar pull off another box office hit that isn't a sequel?"

How "Hoppers" Has Been Doing So Far

Let's look at where things stand as of March 30. Worldwide, "Hoppers" has raked in $297 million—split between $138 million domestic and $159 million international, according to Box Office Mojo. Those numbers will keep creeping up over the next month or so, since the movie is still showing through May.

For context, its US/Canada opening weekend take was $46 million. That's just a little behind 2017's "Coco" ($50 million), and it's ahead of other recent animated releases—"GOAT", "Dog Man", "The Wild Robot". Not too shabby, and the critics have been very into it too; both fans and reviewers are giving it a 94% on Rotten Tomatoes.

One thing helping: Tom, the lizard character, has basically invaded the internet as a meme. Guess viral memes are Pixar's new marketing department now.

So Why the Worried Faces at Pixar?

Here's the part the studio accountants actually lose sleep over. Reportedly, "Hoppers" cost about $150 million to make. But just breaking even isn't enough for a studio blockbuster. The insiders say the film needs to hit around $375 million (not a random number—they're using a 2.5x budget multiple as the benchmark) to be officially considered a hit. That means "Hoppers" still has about $78 million left to go. Sure, it's on track to possibly make that, but it's close enough that it could go either way, depending on how competition shakes out.

Why the Tough Competition?

• Right after "Hoppers", Ryan Gosling's "Project Hail Mary" (another big Hollywood question mark that's become a genuine crowd-pleaser, even pulling in families with its friendly alien crab) dropped on March 20. That siphoned off some of the momentum from "Hoppers"—especially since "Project Hail Mary" somehow turned a sci-fi PG-13 story into a family event.
• Now, "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" from Nintendo and Illumination lands this week. Even if this video game sequel doesn't reach its last film's wild $1.36 billion haul, it's already expected to break some records and, more importantly for "Hoppers", soak up a huge chunk of the family/kid audience.

Basically, "Hoppers" found itself squeezed between an unexpectedly strong competitor and an incoming box office juggernaut. Not a great spot.

The Big Picture for Pixar

Now, looking at the bigger trend—Pixar needed "Hoppers" to do well, especially after last year's "Elio" collapsed at the box office (total worldwide take: just $154 million). And it might have been even uglier; an artist told The Hollywood Reporter that "Elio"'s true production budget was well over $200 million, regardless of what was reported elsewhere. Oof. A lot of that mess was blamed on a lack of marketing support, which... yeah, sounds about right given how quietly it came and went.

Luckily for Pixar, Disney's other big property, "Zootopia 2", absolutely cleaned up with $1.8 billion worldwide. That means, even if "Hoppers" barely makes it across the not-a-flop finish line, the company isn't exactly panicking.

So will "Hoppers" stick the landing as a cash cow for Pixar? It's too soon to call. If nothing else, it's doing a heck of a lot better than last year's disaster, and it's nice to see an original animated film even putting up a fight in today's reboot-crazy landscape.

'Under normal circumstances, the movie wouldn't have too much trouble earning the remaining $78 million to break even. And by the end of its run, it looks like it could reach that figure, if just barely.'

Long story short: For once, the numbers are actually interesting—and for original Pixar, that hasn't been true in a while.