Spider-Man to finally lose at the box office? New predictions weigh in

Right, the summer box office remains firmly in the grip of Spider-Man: Brand New Day, but there are a couple of challengers lunging for that top spot this weekend. Let’s get into where the figures are landing and see if Spidey is actually in any danger—or if it’s all just wishful thinking from the newcomers.

Still Sticking to the Top

Despite it being its fifth weekend out, Spider-Man: Brand New Day isn’t showing much sign of budging from number one. The estimate for the weekend is about $18 million, which would be a drop of 54%. Not exactly immortal numbers, but still more than enough to fend off the latest debuts if predictions hold. The film’s had a proper stranglehold on the summer, pulling in a staggering $863 million domestically and a whooping $2.23 billion worldwide as of Tuesday. When it opened back in late July, it kicked off with a massive $360 million across nearly 4,500 screens, and eventually expanded even further to a widest release of 4,539 US theatres.

Spider-Man: Brand New Day has already racked up $2.23 billion worldwide by this Tuesday.

Who’s Actually Competing?

Two new wide releases are rolling up for their shot: The Dog Stars and Coyote vs. Acme. Frankly, neither is tracking close to Spidey’s numbers.

• The Dog Stars: Ridley Scott directs this one, with Jacob Elordi and Josh Brolin starring in yet another virus-ravaged post-apocalyptic world. It’s a big production from 20th Century Studios, but critics aren’t that fussed—sitting at just 36% on Rotten Tomatoes at the moment. Not exactly a rave.
• Coyote vs. Acme: Now this film’s been on a bit of a journey—Warner Bros. Discovery canned it, but Ketchup Entertainment have dusted it off and released it anyway. It’s a live-action/animated mash-up with Will Forte, John Cena, and Lana Condor in the key roles, adapting Ian Frazier’s old piece. Critics and fans are much happier here: it’s holding a 95% Certified Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Considering its weird backstory and wild animation/live pairings, I wouldn't call it a surefire commercial hit, but it’s clearly got some backing.

On top of those, a handful of smaller releases are rolling out: Roadside Attractions is giving Sundance pickup Buddy some extra screens, while IFC sends Idiots (starring Dave Franco) into wide release too. But in box office terms, it’s the two above that might make a dent—if they’re lucky.

The Summer’s Numbers Race

All this is happening in the context of a broader summer box office arms race, because the entire US market still needs to pull in roughly $280 million more if it’s going to beat the 2013 record haul of $4.756 billion. That year famously stretched over 123 days, with Iron Man 3 topping out at $409 million. This year they're stretching summer even further, over 130 days—from the first Friday of May to Labor Day. So that record’s not totally out of reach, even if it’s a bit of a sprint to the finish.

For the record, Spider-Man: Brand New Day actually dropped to second place on its fourth Friday (pulling $9.8 million), but bounced straight back to the top slot by Saturday—so even its 'drops' are short-lived. It has had to give up 533 theatres between its third and fourth weekends, but the numbers are still holding.