Could This Breakout Series Tie The Pitt for Most 2026 Emmy Nods?

Emmy season chatter is officially in overdrive, and here comes the big prediction: Shrinking (yes, that one on Apple TV+ with Jason Segel as a therapist who says the quiet parts out loud) is shaping up to tie the nomination count of HBO's prestige juggernaut The Pitt at the 2026 Emmys. If you know your awards history, you might remember Shrinking got plenty of love last year—nominations for best comedy, strong acting nods—but ended up walking away empty-handed. Fast-forward to season three, and it apparently has the kind of momentum the TV Academy loves when they're feeling generous.

According to Variety's latest crystal-ball gazing, Shrinking and The Pitt are both expected to score 12 nominations apiece. Not bad, considering The Pitt is an Emmy veteran and reigning drama champ, while Shrinking is only now getting its chance to strike while the iron (and, I guess, the therapist's couch) is hot.

Shrinking: The Little Show That Might, Finally

Here's the full rundown of why Shrinking is in the hunt: Last year, Apple had to make room for The Studio—a show that steamrolled most comedy categories and basically blocked Shrinking from getting anywhere near gold. This year, with The Studio on hiatus (or just not in the running), there's a path cleared for Segel, Ford, and company. Plus, having Harrison Ford actually enjoying himself on a streaming sitcom? Still surreal, but the Emmys eat that up.

• Outstanding Comedy Series
• Lead Actor, Comedy: Jason Segel (as Jimmy Laird)
• Supporting Actor, Comedy: Harrison Ford (as Dr. Paul Rhoades); Michael Urie (as Brian Lorenzo)
• Supporting Actress, Comedy: Jessica Williams (Gaby Evans)
• Guest roles, Comedy: Jeff Daniels, Brett Goldstein (yes, the guy from Ted Lasso shows up as a guest star), Michael J. Fox (if you missed his cameo, watch it—it's oddly moving), and Candice Bergen
• Directing, Comedy: Randall Kennan Winston for 'And That's Our Time'
• Writing, Comedy: Bill Lawrence, Brett Goldstein, Neil Goldman for 'And That's Our Time'
• Casting, Comedy: Debby Romano, Brett Benner

Odds-makers think Segel, Ford, Michael J. Fox, and the show's writing and casting teams could all walk away with trophies. But here's the caveat: Hacks could still edge them out for Best Comedy.

The Pitt: Heavyweight Favorite Gets Company

Meanwhile, The Pitt (which dominated last year) is predicted to rack up a dozen noms too. No real surprise there—the TV Academy has a hard time letting go of a winner when they're on a roll. Noah Wyle heads up the drama, and he, along with Shawn Hatosy and Katherine LaNasa, are expected to repeat their acting wins. The forecast for The Pitt is more of the same: lots of love for the cast and crew, especially across the drama and directing categories.

In case you're keeping score, here's who from The Pitt is getting predicted nods:

• Outstanding Drama Series
• Lead Actor, Drama: Noah Wyle (Dr. Michael 'Robby' Robinavitch)
• Supporting Actor, Drama: Patrick Ball (Dr. Frank Langdon)
• Supporting Actress, Drama: Taylor Dearden (Dr. Melissa 'Mel' King), Katherine LaNasa (Dana Evans), Sepideh Moafi (Dr. Baran Al-Hashimi)
• Guest Actor, Drama: Shawn Hatosy (Dr. Jack Abbot)
• Guest Actress, Drama: Tal Anderson (Becca King)
• Directing, Drama: Amanda Marsalis ('10:00 A.M.'), John Wells ('9:00 PM')
• Writing, Drama: R. Scott Gemmill ('9:00 P.M.')
• Casting, Drama: Cathy Sandrich Gelfond, Erica Berger

On the whole, The Pitt is set up to win another Best Drama trophy and repeat its casting win—plus, the usual suspects in the acting categories are expected to come out on top again.

Some Quick Takeaways:

- Variety's nomination math is a little creative: they're counting some big Primetime categories alongside a few Creative Arts ones (like guest star and casting), so the numbers look even flashier.
- Shrinking gets a chance to level up mostly because the big comedy rival from last year, The Studio, isn't part of the race.
- If there's a real surprise, it's just how dominant Shrinking is predicted to be in the acting categories—if those predictions are even half-right, that's a big win for a once-underdog show.

'With the strength of its third season and less competition in the field, Shrinking is finally a serious threat for the win.'

Bottom line: The Pitt is still the drama to beat, and Shrinking might finally get some respect from Emmy voters. Either way, it's shaping up to be a much tighter race than most people expected.

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards air on September 14 on NBC and Peacock, if you want to see how all the predictions shake out in real time.